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City Council Special Meeting Auto captions

Monday, August 13, 2018

5:30 PM · Council Chambers, 135 E. Sunset Way, Issaquah WA
Topic tracked across meetings:
Amending Financial Policies to remove the Ad Hoc Long Term Financial Committee AB 8353 1/2
2. FINANCIAL RETREAT
2a
Financial Performance [50 min.]
2b
Current Debt Review [10 min.]
2c
Long-Term Financial Model [90 min.]
2d
Financial Indicators [20 min.]
2e
Current Revenue Sources [10 min.]
0:15 good evening and welcome to the Monday
0:19 August 13th City Council's special
0:22 meeting and we're going to meet hot this
0:25 is purpose of this meeting is told a
0:27 financial retreat we're discussing
0:29 financial performance current debt
0:31 review long term finance model financial
0:34 indicators and current revenue sources
0:36 so with that we'll get started
0:41 Thank You council president Mart's
0:44 welcome everyone tonight it's in a
0:47 nutshell everything financial and so
0:49 this is sometimes for finance
0:53 departments this is our most exciting
0:55 time is when we can have the
0:57 conversation and go through information
0:59 number by number I'm just kidding so
1:03 we're going to be talking tonight about
1:05 a number of different pieces of
1:07 financial information we've provided the
1:10 2017 year-end report we've also have a
1:14 2018 mid-year report due to some
1:17 staffing transition we would typically
1:19 have a quarterly report to the council
1:21 to give you financial performance
1:23 however tonight we're going to be
1:25 talking about that mid-year or some
1:27 often refer to it as second quarter of
1:29 the year so we're doing this in
1:33 anticipation of our budget development
1:35 cycle for 2019 this is to give a
1:39 perspective on where we've been how
1:41 we've performed and also to talk about
1:45 some planning going forward you'll note
1:48 in the information that the key section
1:51 of the book is the financial model this
1:53 is an item that the ad hoc long-range
1:56 financial committee has been working on
1:58 and as directed by the City Council
2:02 looking at ways to help with our
2:05 financial stability as the council
2:07 addresses transportation issues in the
2:09 community so with that there are
2:13 certainly projects that are identified
2:15 in the 2018 2022 capital improvement
2:20 plan
2:21 that document is not included in here it
2:23 is a separate resource that's available
2:24 for the community as well as a council
2:28 on our city website so with that we're
2:32 going to be talking about a number of
2:34 topics in my cover memo I alluded to
2:37 what those agenda items would be and so
2:42 that is financial review of the how we
2:44 have performed retrospective reports
2:47 we'll talk about where our existing debt
2:49 is just so that everyone can gain an
2:52 understanding of what it looks like talk
2:54 about the financial model and the
2:56 assumptions that were used as well as
2:58 some example scenarios that were
3:01 discussed by the ad hoc committee and
3:03 then we'll review some indicator
3:05 information this is a tool that was
3:06 created last year to help us pave the
3:09 way with understanding what warning
3:11 trends we might want to be monitoring
3:13 these indicators are not are not in it
3:17 in their entirety all the indicators
3:19 that a community might look at but we're
3:22 starting with trying to understand how
3:24 our financial condition might change
3:27 should the council make a decision and
3:29 then we'll be talking about funding
3:31 sources both existing as well as there
3:34 are some new source opportunities it's
3:36 not intended as you can see the time
3:38 allotted to funding sources or revenue
3:41 sources because this is something that
3:44 as part of our budget development we'll
3:47 continue to have discussions on
3:50 alternative revenue sources and then of
3:53 course other major projects that are not
3:55 included in the CIP so with that I
3:59 wanted to start on some financial
4:02 performance so I wanted to go into the
4:06 information and take a look at 2017 this
4:10 year-end report this does start on what
4:14 I think you have in your packet as page
4:16 1 but is the 2017 year and report budget
4:19 versus actual so overall the general
4:26 fund
4:28 pretty robust ending fund reserves tax
4:32 revenues were strong in 2017 our
4:36 development revenue we saw increases and
4:39 we had general fund expenditures come in
4:41 5% below
4:42 the budgeted amounts that were
4:44 authorized by the City Council our
4:46 utility operating our utility enterprise
4:50 funds are very strong as well in good
4:53 financial shape the one thing I did want
4:56 to note is that these are reports budget
4:59 versus actual these are different from
5:01 the formal audit of our financial
5:03 statements the finance department is
5:05 anticipating the state auditor's office
5:07 will be with us on-site for the audit
5:09 fieldwork in September and they will be
5:12 formalizing then those financial
5:14 statements and the council will be
5:15 invited to those sessions as well to to
5:19 see financial statements from a
5:20 different view but I wanted to talk
5:24 about with some highlights with regards
5:26 to revenue expenditures and our fund
5:28 balance the primary revenue sources in
5:31 the general fund are taxes and what we
5:33 call charges for goods or services so
5:35 these are other fees that that we charge
5:38 other entities residents and customers
5:43 these sources are about 82% of the
5:47 general fund and we had revenues for
5:52 2017 exceed our our 2017 target of
5:58 revenue the final revenue budget was set
6:01 at almost 47 million we received 109
6:05 percent of that or about 51 million in
6:07 revenue sources the reason that we or I
6:15 should back up a little bit about the
6:17 revenue targets in 2017 the council did
6:21 authorize some amendments and those
6:22 amendments from the starting original
6:24 budget in 2017 ended about four point 1
6:29 million dollars upwards primarily due to
6:32 the fund accounting shifts that that we
6:34 did in 2017
6:36 one of the biggest reasons for some of
6:38 the what we call the fund accounting
6:40 cleanup was because we shifted sales tax
6:42 into the general fund and then the
6:45 council through their budget decides
6:48 where that money goes so instead of
6:50 splitting it up and being confusing we
6:53 wanted to show specifically all sales
6:56 tax in one place and then you decide
6:58 what to do with it into other funds the
7:02 sales tax was very it's the largest
7:04 source of revenue for the general fund
7:07 we received about fourteen point seven
7:10 million dollars and we were around
7:12 ninety nine percent of our estimated
7:14 receipts we collected all of these
7:18 retail sales tax along with all of the
7:21 different types of sales tax the primary
7:23 or the or the large part of our sales
7:26 tax comes from retail sales we also have
7:29 a strong showing of construction sales
7:32 tax as well and that came in at 17% this
7:36 is because construction is and continues
7:38 to be strong in Issaquah we also have
7:42 another type of sales tax just wanted to
7:45 point that out in the information we
7:47 don't take a deep dive into the details
7:49 about sales tax but our accommodation
7:51 and food services tax has seen an
7:54 increase increase and this was a 7%
7:57 increase in 2017 over the same period in
8:01 2016 so that is something that that we
8:05 have data on other category of revenues
8:10 for the general fund is the property tax
8:12 this is another large source a hundred
8:15 percent of our tax estimates were
8:18 collected comes through King County very
8:21 strong source of funds very stable
8:24 utility taxes are also a large source
8:27 for the general fund about 19% of all
8:30 sources that we received and these come
8:32 from our collecting of tax on sales of
8:38 electricity natural gas solid waste
8:41 water telephone cable television all
8:44 within the city limits
8:46 so in 2007
8:48 we collected about 4.5 million dollars
8:50 and that was about a hundred and one
8:52 percent of the the budget targets so
8:55 we're very pleased to see that our
8:57 targets were that that were getting
9:01 close to what we're forecasting via no
9:04 attacks is business and occupation taxes
9:06 on the business activity in Issaquah if
9:10 the council will recall that there was
9:12 an increase in sales or the excuse me
9:16 the be no tax rates we do have another
9:19 full year of you know taxes coming into
9:23 the city this comes from about three
9:28 thousand eight hundred ninety five
9:30 businesses who filed in 2017 keep that
9:34 in mind that we we do have over 6100
9:38 licensed businesses but not all have to
9:41 pay B&O tax we had year-end receipts of
9:45 over five million dollars and this was a
9:47 hundred and eight percent of our budget
9:50 forecast again shows a full year of
9:53 those increased rates adopted back in
9:55 2015 this is a another strong stable
10:00 showing of our business climate and I
10:06 wanted to talk a little bit about
10:07 development fees these include building
10:10 permit fees engineering services plan
10:12 review inspection services we had a
10:16 sharp decline in development activity in
10:18 2016 so 2017 development related revenue
10:23 surged in 2017 a hundred and eighty five
10:27 percent of the revenue target and this
10:30 primary reason was because of the
10:32 conservative estimate at the time of
10:33 budget because we were within or
10:38 involved in the moratorium in place and
10:41 so we wanted to be conservative on that
10:44 budget target however we did have
10:46 projects that still move forward one of
10:48 those was the Gateway Apartments their
10:52 sources of revenue and these are these
10:55 fall into that category of charges for
10:56 good and goods and services is
10:58 recreation fees
11:00 very positive showing right on target
11:03 with our 2017 projections of about 2.2
11:07 million dollars then we go into our
11:09 public safety fees so these are for jail
11:11 services and we received about 1.5
11:17 million dollars received of the 1.9
11:21 million dollar target this coming in
11:25 under the revenue target was primarily
11:28 because of the number of guaranteed beds
11:32 being reserved by local jurisdictions
11:34 then we have our final revenue source of
11:39 fines and forfeitures of about 220,000
11:43 this came in way over target this is a
11:46 this is different cult one to predict is
11:48 fines in fees because you don't know
11:50 when someone's not going to comply with
11:53 law so this is just one that I wanted to
11:57 show and also comment on difficult to
12:00 predict on the expenditure side then
12:04 again the general fund expenditures in
12:07 2017 were under budget
12:09 the general fund includes levels of
12:12 service for police and fire protection
12:15 planning community development economic
12:18 development Parks and Recreation and
12:20 general government administrative and
12:21 financial services all that comes from
12:23 the general fund yes sorry before you
12:25 get too far into that can I ask a
12:26 question around revenues and I'm
12:28 actually sort of looking ahead at page
12:30 four but you know as I look at major
12:34 outliers you talked about building
12:37 permits and I'm so much I completely
12:39 understand so we were at two hundred
12:41 ninety six percent of projected and that
12:45 was with a moratorium for the whole year
12:47 so how did how did that how did we get
12:52 there you talked a little bit about a
12:55 couple of things that were ongoing
12:56 through the moratorium but I guess how
12:58 do we make sure in 2018 that we get a
13:03 more accurate number because he had a
13:04 total two and a half million bucks total
13:05 which is the largest share of the sort
13:08 of difference from what was projected
13:15 so for 28 for 2017 or I should I should
13:19 back up development fees are one of the
13:21 one of those also somewhat difficult to
13:27 predict and with a moratorium in place
13:32 because we wanted to be conservative
13:34 because it means something at the at the
13:36 end of the day or the end of the year
13:38 and and the the purpose for the low
13:43 estimate was was to do just that however
13:46 there were projects that were in the
13:48 pipeline that we were aware of and we
13:51 were monitoring that would continue to
13:54 move forward and sometimes projects move
13:58 faster than you anticipate and so
14:00 keeping up with that that budget target
14:03 it starts to smooth itself out and in
14:05 2018 we go through this the same effort
14:07 of looking at what's in the pipeline
14:09 what do we expect is is going to happen
14:12 and in what year and so 18 is set and we
14:18 all we set revenue targets higher
14:19 because you know we improved our tools
14:23 for forecasting those projects but
14:25 nonetheless we still have new that
14:27 projects were in the pipeline so as we
14:28 continued as we start to look at 2019
14:30 we're doing the same thing is
14:32 understanding again what do we
14:35 anticipate coming forward and again that
14:38 the difficulty of that is is things
14:42 happen or things get delayed or they or
14:44 they move a bit faster so it's it's one
14:47 of those things eventually we start to
14:48 smooth out and and what we do when we go
14:53 into forecasting we don't necessarily
14:54 assume project by project specific but
14:57 whenever we start to take revenues and
14:59 increase those based on the general
15:02 economic inflator so if if that answered
15:06 your question about us our ISM I was
15:10 monitoring that but things in the
15:12 pipeline are difficult to predict where
15:14 they're going to land revenue wise got
15:17 a related question is the other large
15:20 but the other large differences in
15:22 miscellaneous revenue was that the
15:24 changing of accounting and where we put
15:26 things versus other funds or was that a
15:28 real unexpected windfall may have been
15:32 this is that's something that we can add
15:34 into the parking lot to get to answer
15:37 some questions and provide that to the
15:39 council we did have in 2017 some land
15:43 purchases or that had been anticipated
15:45 or not and so that's something that we
15:48 can certainly you know get provided the
15:51 deep drill down into and to make sure
15:55 that we're understanding what exactly
15:56 happened but fund accounting was quite a
15:59 factor in 2017 to get things planned in
16:03 the right place
16:03 and accounted for in the right place
16:05 because here's why I ask these questions
16:07 that sort of the overall point is that I
16:10 mean how wonderful that we brought in
16:12 more money than we thought were going to
16:14 and we spent less than we thought and I
16:16 wish that my budgets from my personal
16:17 finances worked that well they don't but
16:20 what that does is it drives up our
16:22 ending fund balance right and then when
16:25 we go to correct that by spending money
16:27 and this isn't this isn't a problem per
16:30 se but we've seen recently in the
16:32 community confusion about as we go to
16:35 balance our various funds and keep our
16:37 funds at at the right levels you know
16:40 that can feel that can get confusing to
16:43 the public right so in a you know in a
16:45 perfect world you know we would bring in
16:49 what we think we're gonna bring in and
16:50 we'd spend what we think we're gonna
16:51 spend and those and that ending fund
16:52 balance I mean again it's a wonderful
16:54 problem to have oh no we have too much
16:56 money at the end of the year but you
16:58 know at the same time we I think you get
17:01 my point
17:02 so the extent to which as we get into
17:04 budget season for next year I mean I
17:05 think historically we almost always are
17:09 cautious in our budgets and so we end up
17:11 spending less than we thought we were
17:13 going to and make more than we thought
17:15 we were going to but I I want to
17:17 understand going forward how that
17:19 relates these conversations about our
17:21 ending fund balance and making sure the
17:22 community understands that when we you
17:25 know we're not running deficits if we
17:27 you know correct acrost our funds
17:29 and and bring you know bringing our
17:32 numbers in line with our long-term
17:33 financial policy so they sent to achieve
17:35 you talked about that further as we get
17:37 into budget season would be helpful
17:38 absolutely and you just alluded to the
17:42 how you tackle fund balance when your
17:45 reserves are over your target and
17:47 reserves when they're under the target
17:49 and so in your financial policy and
17:51 that's something that the council
17:52 addressed was updating financial policy
17:56 to be very clear on the the reserve
17:59 target moved last year from that 8% to a
18:02 range of 15 to 20 percent policy also
18:06 was very very clear in those sections of
18:08 it that said when the council has more
18:11 revenues and or more reserves and they
18:14 they they want to have in the in their
18:18 butt fund balance then that's where the
18:21 council has to have discussions about
18:22 how to spend that money that can be done
18:25 at the budget development time same
18:28 thing or it can be done throughout the
18:30 year knowing where you're at if there is
18:33 something that like building permit fees
18:37 that came in way over that's something
18:39 that the administration can start to
18:42 work on to say okay now we have this as
18:44 part of your your budget amendment
18:46 process is to say let's amend the budget
18:48 and then let's use it for something same
18:51 thing in the budget development where a
18:53 council would maybe be under their
18:55 revenue there reserve target is where
18:57 you would in your in your budget then
18:59 want to correct that bring it up and so
19:02 something may not get done in the year
19:04 because you are just going to leave more
19:07 in your ending fund balance to meet your
19:10 financial policies so we will continue
19:12 as we work on the 2019 budget is to
19:16 address the fund balance issue we will
19:19 be talking about that some tonight when
19:22 we talk about the financial model and
19:24 the the assumptions and a pathway
19:27 forward for tackling the transportation
19:29 issue great thanks
19:34 we can keep going I will thank you
19:37 let's see expenditures just want to give
19:39 a brief overview about spending
19:41 appropriation the requirements that the
19:43 City Council authorizes during the
19:46 budget development cycle are typically
19:48 for these major categories their salary
19:51 and benefits just like a business we
19:53 have operating supplies we have cost
19:56 allocations and that's one fun charging
19:58 another fund for some service and then
20:01 we have professional services we have
20:04 capital outlay and I just wanted to just
20:06 make a quick note the capital outlay it
20:08 can be different while it's still a
20:09 capital purchase there's a difference
20:11 between capital outlay and capital
20:13 projects and it's all because of a
20:15 threshold number that policy states and
20:18 then we have transfers from one fund to
20:21 another primarily for capital projects
20:23 or debt service obligations so in the
20:26 information I'm not going to go through
20:28 department detail which starts on page
20:32 six but I just want to generally comment
20:34 about 2017 and our expenditures we had
20:40 expenditures at about 95 percent of the
20:44 2017 budget of 52 million dollars we
20:47 came in about 49 almost fifty thousand
20:50 spent the expenditure allocations were
20:53 amended from the original budget up
20:55 about 5.2 million and this was primarily
20:59 due to again the fund accounting cleanup
21:01 of transactions that we added because we
21:04 we put all the revenue in the general
21:06 fund for sales tax but we also added in
21:09 a transfer out for debt service so it's
21:11 clear that all of that limited general
21:17 obligation bonds that payment comes
21:20 directly from the general fund we also
21:22 had some budget amendments in 2017 that
21:27 were connected to expenditures for the
21:30 talus slide the trader Joe intersection
21:33 improvements central park pad one king
21:36 county roads property purchase the
21:38 Gilman lofts development as well as some
21:41 you know professional services for
21:43 working in our development services
21:44 department the original budget then I
21:47 have listed out the ordinances for the
21:51 the public to note that these changes to
21:54 the budget happened throughout the year
21:58 so then that leads us to fund balance
22:01 and fund balance is basically a measure
22:06 of the of our liquidity and it's
22:09 important to note that this is always a
22:11 forecast of the mount until our
22:12 financial statements are audited so when
22:16 when you're looking at it's kind of like
22:17 reconciling your checkbook because fund
22:19 balance or fund accounting is like
22:21 little checkbooks all the funds has a
22:23 beginning balance you put deposits in
22:25 you write out some checks for some
22:27 expenses and then after each line you
22:30 have an ending fund balance that's the
22:32 same thing that we deal with in fund
22:34 accounting and so that every time we
22:37 take in a deposit and every time we
22:39 spend some dollars on goods or services
22:41 that fund balance changes and so I
22:44 always like to make it be known that the
22:47 the ending fund balance is something
22:49 that we always try to have that that new
22:52 number as we go through record the
22:54 reconciliation process available for
22:56 counsel so the fund balance is it is a
23:00 source of revenue though as we just
23:02 talked about is that when there's a lot
23:05 in reserves you can spend it and when
23:07 there's not a lot reserves you've got to
23:09 put it back there so in 2017 the the
23:12 beginning fund balance was sixteen point
23:15 five million dollars our 2017 revenues
23:19 exceeded expenditures by over 1.5
23:23 million dollars and so that improved our
23:25 2017 forecasted ending fund balance of
23:28 eighteen million dollars now we're
23:30 getting ready to go to through the audit
23:33 fieldwork and so when we get to that
23:35 point at this time of the year were the
23:38 two thousand ending 17 fund balances is
23:42 pretty we're pretty close in that unless
23:44 there's something that we've seriously
23:46 missed and significantly missed but
23:49 there's always a challenge I'm if I were
23:52 to talk about prior
23:53 adjustments we could be here all night
23:55 so 2017 and the fund balance equates to
23:58 about 36% of our 2017 expenditures so
24:03 you can see that when we compare that to
24:04 our target our reserve target of 15 to
24:08 20 percent we have a significant level
24:11 of reserves at 2017 so with that I'm
24:15 going to just point out for those who
24:19 are looking to understand this financial
24:21 report some of the information with
24:25 regards to revenues are summarized and
24:28 show in the different categories on page
24:31 four of the report the 51 million
24:34 dollars taken in and then the next page
24:37 is a summary of expenditures by the
24:40 department showing a 95 percent of the
24:44 amended budget spent or utilized and
24:47 then at the bottom of every fund and
24:51 you'll see this because all funds are
24:52 included in this report so our general
24:55 fund special revenue funds capital
24:57 project funds debt service funds and our
25:00 utility funds and other agency funds are
25:02 all included and you can see the same
25:04 format it's kind of like an income
25:05 statement if you're more familiar with a
25:07 private sector you can see revenues
25:09 expenditures and you can see then the
25:12 impact to the funds balances so there
25:16 you can see the actual revenues over
25:19 expenses were 1.5 million dollars
25:22 beginning fund balance changing from
25:25 balance and an ending fund balance I
25:26 just wanted to point out to the
25:28 designation of fund balance this is a
25:31 Gatsby requirement to note the type or
25:35 the designation of fund balance because
25:37 we can't spend it all we have non
25:39 spindle non spendable items so if you're
25:42 familiar with inventory that's an amount
25:43 that's associated with inventory we
25:45 can't spend it's not cash we have
25:47 restricted dollars because in the
25:50 general fund we do have some dollars
25:52 that are associated with seizure or
25:55 forfeiture dollars and for the police
25:58 department and then everything else is
26:01 unassigned that's to be used at the
26:04 consuls discretion so with that I would
26:10 be happy to answer any questions about
26:12 the 2008 or 2017 year-end report
26:19 questions for my fellow council members
26:25 all right that's our seat well we're
26:27 moving right along then I'm gonna move
26:29 to the 2018 mid-year report this is on a
26:34 page I went too fast I was over clicking
26:36 page 49 again this is a same format I'm
26:44 going to I'll go through again some
26:47 major highlights of this but I just
26:49 wanted to let the council know on page
26:52 49 that again this is a emphasis and
26:56 it's on the general fund it is a
26:59 snapshot of the fund activity prior to
27:02 audit and for 2018 we have no budget
27:06 amendments so this is something that the
27:08 council will be addressing some proposed
27:10 budget amendments coming but this report
27:12 does not include those so for 2018 as as
27:17 we are at the mid-year point we continue
27:21 to have your best reserves our tax
27:23 revenues remain strong the general fund
27:26 revenues are at 48% of budget and
27:29 general fund expenditures are at 45
27:31 percent of budget utilized again utility
27:34 operator operating revenue is strong so
27:41 with that we have that we have the same
27:44 categories of revenue we have received
27:47 about twenty four and a half million
27:49 dollars in taxes again we have our large
27:54 taxes being sales tax B&O tax utility
27:57 tax and property tax there isn't
28:00 anything that is kind of hanging out
28:04 there that that we're seeing that would
28:07 be problematic for us to remain in that
28:10 robust and strong economic cycle here
28:15 property taxes our at the four point six
28:19 million dollars in collection that's
28:21 fifty two percent of what we have
28:24 anticipated and one thing to note about
28:26 property taxes is that we don't receive
28:30 revenues route you know consistently on
28:33 a month-to-month basis this is kind of a
28:36 big windfall in May and a windfall in
28:40 November and then property taxes then
28:42 trickle in so that's why sometimes when
28:46 you see revenues are under or over it
28:49 could be because of other agencies who
28:52 provide that and you might see that in
28:53 the case of shared revenues where
28:55 sometimes from other agencies we don't
28:57 receive that revenue until the third
28:59 quarter or even the end of the year and
29:01 so when you say why are why are we not
29:03 on target there's nothing that alarms us
29:06 with regards to why we wouldn't be
29:09 meeting or exceeding our revenue targets
29:16 any questions on 2018 revenues before I
29:20 jump into expenditures at the moment
29:25 okay well we can go back to any to any
29:28 any question that comes up there I'm
29:34 going to move around my page here oh
29:37 sorry
29:38 councilmember Rey I do have a question
29:40 so you mentioned that property taxes can
29:43 be lumpy that is we get them here and
29:45 there and a little bit in between what's
29:47 the pattern for other sources of taxes
29:50 I'm thinking about sales tax is it a
29:51 linear distribution through the year
29:53 does it skew one way or the other
29:55 you know I'm just looking at these
29:57 things and so is 49% mean we're gonna
30:01 have a 49% year or does it you know do
30:04 we get a Christmas bump for sales tax it
30:07 comes in monthly but there are because
30:12 we have yes the Christmas bump we have
30:13 you know we have the holiday bump but
30:16 there is they're pretty consistent in
30:18 the city of Issaquah so that's that's
30:20 kind of a good thing
30:24 so do we have any ability to have in
30:29 addition to what we've adopted as a
30:31 budget in addition to having our accrual
30:33 do we haven't made near the ability to
30:35 do a projection for well weeks how we
30:37 expect to end the year how that might be
30:39 different than either of those other
30:41 numbers that's what we're starting to do
30:43 is we start to develop the budget
30:44 because it's it's a component of the
30:47 budget development is where we start to
30:49 do those year in projections and so
30:52 certainly that that's something that
30:54 you'll see when we start having those
30:57 conversations but for this reports
30:59 retrospective so we would not have any
31:02 forecasted information here there is
31:04 though in a later part of this report
31:07 some of those projections you see a lot
31:09 of those are kind of they're just
31:11 they're just going up because we are in
31:13 a strong and stable economy and so
31:15 that's that's why we wanted to share
31:17 that in another part here because these
31:20 are budget versus actual and we wanted
31:23 to give you good clear reports on how we
31:26 were performing based on the targets
31:29 that you set for budget
31:31 okay because if I mean if this includes
31:35 this includes July then on revenues you
31:41 know I would if it was evenly spaced and
31:44 there wasn't a big Christmas bump then
31:46 I'd expect to be at you know 56.7% not
31:50 48 percent and this is as of June I see
31:53 okay feel better
31:58 all right so expenditure overview like I
32:01 indicated there have been no budget
32:05 amendments that have been considered by
32:07 the council those are coming for your
32:08 September 4th meeting the budget
32:11 amendments that were anticipating are a
32:14 little over almost 900,000 of some
32:17 staffing and benefits that the Council
32:19 of it has addressed and there's agenda
32:20 bills and in the budget amendment that
32:22 you'll see we reference the agenda bill
32:25 where you were already seeing the ask
32:31 of the administration and then we have
32:34 some coming up reauthorization requests
32:39 for the general fund and then we also
32:42 will be looking at a very very small
32:47 donation that came in for the Senior
32:49 Center and then there's a there's a an
32:52 exact offsetting expenditure to utilize
32:55 those monies in 2018 so that's what
32:59 that's what we're anticipating and again
33:02 will be further conversations about that
33:05 in September that leads us to again I
33:13 might sound like a broken record but we
33:15 have a 2018 identified or a target
33:22 general fund beginning balance of 18
33:26 million dollars right now revenues are
33:29 exceeding expenditures and so when you
33:33 compare a very very small revenue
33:39 revenues under expenditures from the
33:41 budget side on the planning side and
33:43 where we're at now because we we aren't
33:46 matched with the revenues at 50 percent
33:48 and expenditures at 50 percent we're
33:51 seeing that right now revenues are over
33:54 expenditures and so we have a fund
33:56 balance of about 19 million dollars as
33:59 of June 30th now again checkbook balance
34:02 changes every time we add money and we
34:04 pay bills so that that dollar amount has
34:08 already changed again we do have
34:13 significant balance though over the
34:16 council's financial reserve policy of
34:18 the 15 to 20 percent proportion on 40%
34:24 at this point right yes we are on page
34:28 I'm just gonna refer to well we're
34:32 actually from a from the calculation the
34:37 percentage of expenditures because we
34:39 have 19 million dollars and we
34:41 of only 23 million dollars of
34:44 expenditures out yes so we are at the
34:47 50% target but if you do the math on
34:49 what we've actually spent - what we you
34:52 know would have were around the 80 plus
34:55 percent but yeah yeah these are
34:59 snapshots these snapshots you wouldn't
35:01 compare the end of the year to a
35:02 half-year gives you there - but it's
35:05 still you know even if we were to take
35:07 this number and compare it to any sort
35:09 of projection to the end of here it's
35:11 gonna be something like forty percent
35:12 yeah I can't remember right so kind of
35:18 along those lines it's almost the same
35:19 question I asked on revenue but
35:21 unexpensive I mean dude did we see some
35:23 ik underruns in first few quarters that
35:29 we would not expect to see the same
35:31 under-run in the second two quarters
35:33 that is are they are they are there
35:36 things that for instance let me just use
35:38 it for instance if we had some salary
35:41 savings in the first two quarters and we
35:42 filled the positions we would not have
35:44 those salaries savings in the second two
35:45 course do we have any data that gives us
35:47 some indication about will this trend
35:50 continue or will we see ourselves
35:52 bumping back up to the budgeted level
35:54 well when I what I'm seeing is that
35:58 there may have been if there are some
36:00 delays in some projects or studies to
36:03 get underway for 2018 that had been
36:06 identified in any of the departments if
36:09 those had been delayed for any reason
36:11 then you would see you would see some
36:14 that are you know under their budget but
36:17 then if they've if they've gotten these
36:19 these these projects on your weight and
36:22 then we're gonna see that smoothing out
36:24 and and utilizing their budget now that
36:26 doesn't mean that they're there could be
36:28 you know something else that creates a
36:30 hurdle for departments to spend what
36:33 they had anticipated but we would want
36:36 to then capture that in any budget
36:38 amendment if it was going to be
36:39 significant so there isn't anything
36:41 that's that's out there that is cause
36:44 for concern with regards to you know not
36:48 getting to our expenditure targets but
36:51 we'll be knowing that
36:52 and again because we're going through
36:54 the projection process through the
36:55 budget development departments are
36:57 working with the budget analysts to
36:58 anticipate what they are they're going
37:01 to be spending throughout the remainder
37:04 of the year and so that's an ongoing
37:06 work that's happening now councilmember
37:12 winters time thank you yeah and do we
37:15 keep track of any other non accounting
37:17 balances such as headcount like budget
37:20 versus actual like we expected to have
37:22 so many we got this many your question
37:26 was on headcount yeah it's like it's a
37:28 non accounting balance sure
37:31 I mean we're we you know we had a
37:35 budgeted number of FTEs so it could it
37:38 be possible I mean if get this this
37:40 budget versus actuals you know we you
37:42 know we have a budget we have an actual
37:44 variance if that's something that can
37:47 easily be provided to supplement this
37:50 information and obviously we don't have
37:51 it tonight but I think that maybe next
37:53 time you know we we sit down for a real
37:56 budget meeting if that's easy to get and
38:00 I'd like to see that thank you I
38:01 appreciate that we and we'll put that in
38:03 the in the in our parking lot and get
38:05 that information as we have those
38:07 additional conversations for a budget
38:09 thank you all right is there any other
38:16 questions about the 2018 mid-year review
38:21 it appears not thank you all right so
38:26 let's move on to a look at our our
38:31 current debt I do want to point out that
38:34 council member rate asks some questions
38:37 thank you very much and there was a
38:40 revised page that was provided because
38:44 the charts were flipped and so when
38:48 you're looking at the second page of the
38:51 the debt review and I'll grab the page
38:53 number here 196
38:57 you'll note that the chart in the in the
39:00 packet of information that went with the
39:04 unlimited general obligation debt
39:07 obligations should have gone below with
39:10 the limited general obligations but I
39:12 think we can we can all see and I'll
39:15 talk quickly about what this information
39:18 means so the city of Issaquah has a
39:23 triple-a bond rating and this is through
39:26 Standard & Poor's this is because we
39:29 have healthy reserves as well as a
39:33 significant level of debt capacity so
39:35 you could issue a lot of debt there's
39:38 not a lot of cities in Washington to
39:40 have a triple-a rating and so we
39:43 maintain that rating as we stay current
39:47 on our mark and conditions and we
39:50 contract with a bond advisor to help us
39:53 with how the marketplace is tolerating
39:57 the potential for bond issuance I just
40:00 wanted to provide the council with a
40:03 note about the low interest rates and
40:08 what a current trend that's in place is
40:11 that we instead of going out for these
40:15 more formal bond issuance it really
40:19 depends on the bond issue size of it and
40:21 you know everything that goes into that
40:23 but the the trend is that we would go
40:26 out and solicit a bid from privately
40:28 from banks and we got we're getting very
40:31 favorable rates so for example when we
40:33 issued the last portion of the park
40:34 bonds last year that was that was great
40:39 rates under 2% so we're still looking at
40:43 favorable rates not necessarily at 2%
40:45 but that's just something that we we
40:48 find out when we go and ask for requests
40:50 for bids just clarification really quick
40:53 but you've explained that to us before I
40:56 want to make sure I understand that
40:57 instead of go really go into a market
40:59 place we just found a single private
41:01 buyer I just I just tried to Reese a
41:04 what I think I heard you say yes
41:06 that's correct we we go out and solicit
41:08 yeah you said a general bond issuance so
41:10 they're a marketplace someplace where
41:12 there may where people we don't even
41:14 know show up and maybe want part that's
41:17 correct but this is when we're just
41:19 going to one individual or institution
41:20 in this case and they're trying to make
41:25 sure it was clear we we offer it out to
41:27 any bank who wants to wants to provide a
41:30 quote mm-hmm so and so it's it's
41:33 different it's it's less expensive and
41:35 time-consuming there are still all of
41:37 the regulations and rules around around
41:40 issuing debt but what that does is that
41:43 it allows for banks to see that you know
41:47 we might be a good fit in their
41:48 portfolio and that's why we get those
41:50 favorable rates so the information
41:55 provided in this in the debt review
41:57 shows where we at we're at at the end of
42:01 the year for 2017 where we have assessed
42:04 valuation of all properties in the city
42:06 of Issaquah then what it shows there is
42:09 that we have some certain kind of debt
42:11 capacity and that's at that
42:12 two-and-a-half percent of assessed value
42:14 so we have debt capacity for certain
42:16 types of levying and certain certain
42:19 purposes from a capacity standpoint so
42:22 you can see we have total capacity of
42:24 that 800 million part of that then comes
42:29 into play when the council issues konso
42:31 manic or non voted on debt that means
42:34 not having to go to the to the voters to
42:36 ask if you can issue debt so that comes
42:40 into play where we have to be under a
42:42 different assessed evaluation limit so
42:46 you can see that showing there that we
42:48 have statutory than debt limits are set
42:50 then we remove the outstanding debt that
42:54 we have we have 8.1 million in council
42:58 Manek bonds out there as well as other
43:02 debt for the that excess levy and parks
43:06 and open spaces are both voted on levies
43:09 and so we we total outstanding debt as
43:13 of the end of 2007
43:15 is about 25 million dollars we have
43:18 about eight hundred and seventy eight
43:20 thousand dollars as of the end of 2017
43:24 in our debt service funds you would say
43:26 we don't have enough to cover that
43:27 that's the amount to pay the annual
43:29 payment because we receive tax dollars
43:32 into these funds and then we pay the
43:33 debt service out for those folded pieces
43:36 so you can see our debt capacity is
43:39 quite large in the bottom blue line what
43:43 I wanted to also provide for the council
43:46 just so that you could see a perspective
43:49 of our annual debt service this is this
43:52 is our current obligations of the
43:55 council Manek debt at over two million
43:57 dollars every year and we have then the
44:01 excess levy the voters approved and our
44:05 current year debt obligation is a little
44:08 over 1.7 million dollars I just wanted
44:11 to put in a perspective that the council
44:14 Matic bonds or our debt service is about
44:16 four percent of our general fund current
44:20 year expenditures so oftentimes that's
44:23 something that we get asked to say well
44:26 what's what's the percentage of debt as
44:28 as compared to our total expenditures so
44:31 we're at about four percent so I think
44:38 it'd be useful to understand not today
44:43 but in future meetings how that compares
44:46 with comparable cities
44:48 how does Redmond look how does Kirkland
44:51 look as we consider options that would
44:54 take on additional debt for in for
44:57 infrastructure and transportation it'd
44:59 be really good to understand like we
45:01 know we're in a great place with ending
45:02 fund balance right that 4% Seifer
45:04 present' I don't have anything to
45:05 compare that to okay we will do that
45:07 thank you
45:11 all right the next page then if you take
45:15 the amended report you can see visually
45:18 that our our our unlimited geo bonds or
45:26 those are the the bonds that had voter
45:28 approval that those those amortization
45:31 schedules run out about one
45:34 one-and-a-half our that's at one point
45:35 seven out to about two thousand twenty
45:38 six and then we start to drop down so
45:40 that's the that's the bond payment
45:42 starts to go down principal and interest
45:43 as we then run out in those bonds mature
45:47 in 2033 then we if we compare then and
45:53 what kind of we'll be talking about this
45:54 when we talk about the financial model
45:56 the the the graph that depicts our
45:59 limited geo obligations this is the
46:02 council Manek bonds you can see that
46:04 we're we have a debt service payment of
46:06 about two million dollars well very
46:08 quickly we're gonna start to drop and so
46:11 in 2019 2020 we're starting to see our
46:16 obligation annually drop half a million
46:18 dollars and so eventually we would have
46:21 we have no debt and so this is something
46:25 that I wanted to show and depict this
46:27 way that we would we would start here
46:31 then and when the council starts to make
46:33 a decision about debt issuing debt to
46:37 see how that would change and and there
46:40 is a picture of that when we are getting
46:42 into some of our assumptions and in the
46:44 model the questions on our current debt
46:50 and again the revised page was sent out
46:54 to counsel prior to just just right
46:56 before the meeting so it looked like a
47:00 quizzical look but no hands if a council
47:03 member hunt
47:07 so the debt obligation for the non
47:12 booted on his flat for a longer than or
47:17 the voted debt and so I'm just so my
47:21 question is why why is that difference
47:23 in the rates so much later for the non
47:27 voted debt if I'm under said that is
47:31 it's the annual payment and so our
47:33 annual payment based on the bond
47:35 amortization schedule it was just
47:38 designed in that way so our our payments
47:42 go down about a half a million dollars
47:46 over the course of the next three or
47:49 four years and so we we essentially
47:52 would not have a debt payment and so
47:54 that flat line is it's just a depiction
47:58 of the the payment each year year over
48:00 year right okay but all that's the
48:03 question maybe slightly differently have
48:05 we have we exercised non voted more
48:08 recently than voted like these are the
48:11 schedules you know it's just there
48:13 appears to be more I mean if we look at
48:19 our debt service is comparable between
48:23 voted and non voted at the moment but
48:25 the total outstanding there's much more
48:30 voted in than there is non voted in
48:33 and yet the voted in drops faster well
48:39 the voted in drops faster in I'm just
48:42 trying to because the we just issued it
48:49 just issued the last piece of the park
48:52 bonds and so that is that is also
48:55 included in our annual payment for the
48:58 voted in bonds and that's that is the
49:02 structure of the repayment of the bonds
49:06 so I'm not sure if I have an answer to
49:09 say why one is more than the other
49:12 the council has has not issued any
49:14 councilmen
49:15 debt for quite a long time
49:19 and so that's why you see basically no
49:22 no debt obligation but the council
49:25 didn't or the or the community voted to
49:29 or the excess levy and so therefore that
49:32 that was a bigger amount of money so
49:35 it's just the chart that's backwards it
49:38 wasn't corrected here okay
49:40 it was I thought it was corrected in
49:42 this version okay not corrected in the
49:44 book version okay I totally get it okay
49:47 I thought this was the correct oh my
49:49 apologies okay now that was played why I
49:51 was utterly can was that why you were
49:53 confused several people that was why
49:55 they're confused so the correction it
50:01 that was in the original printed fiscal
50:03 forecasting book if you take the the two
50:06 charts they were flipped so it was a
50:08 copy-paste this is good so the the
50:11 charts are they're correct they were
50:13 just under the wrong categories so this
50:16 is the corrected one no this is not the
50:21 corrected one there was an amendment
50:28 after what added so thank you there in
50:31 the ninety cents yeah
50:36 can you could you go back there to make
50:40 it larger
50:41 not larger make it smaller to do show
50:43 the comparison there we go yes this is
50:49 the correct one that's remember winters
50:53 time don't leave Tina second to be a
50:56 master the document you go back to page
51:00 103 of the today's packet
51:07 and it's it's it was just a thing
51:10 there's just a page before where we were
51:12 and it's the debt review current-gen
51:17 it's the the outstanding line less debt
51:23 outstanding geo bonds there is no longer
51:31 okay this is not which page number its
51:39 page 95 of the original packet you going
51:44 up right there
51:48 so the yeah so midway through that table
51:53 less debt outstanding you see about 8.1
51:58 and counsel Matic 7 7 and XS parks and
52:02 open space 9 what those are as of when
52:06 those are as of 12:30 1 2017 okay okay
52:13 all right okay I see that date there
52:14 okay that was oh I see that date jumps
52:17 out at me because I was looking I was
52:19 comparing those two hour those are the
52:21 exact same amounts they were at the end
52:22 of September 2017 as well I was just
52:26 because I was looking I know I had that
52:28 in front was looking at to see what we
52:29 actually had counsel Matic bonds and for
52:31 I'm not sure where I can't recall if top
52:33 my head what we're using the council
52:35 Matic bond for so I looked at the old
52:37 budget that I noticed these numbers are
52:38 exactly the same because we we know
52:40 because we have the we have the
52:42 amortization and so we know what the
52:45 outstanding debt is at the end of every
52:49 year so it's something that we could see
52:51 that we would have the same amount for
52:55 you if the report said June 2017 we know
52:59 what our ending debt would be at the end
53:01 of the year and so I think we can do it
53:03 better we can clarify that better that
53:05 that this is this is based on the
53:07 amortization schedule so it wouldn't
53:10 change it just so happens that those
53:11 amounts exactly match as of September
53:14 30th to 7 2017 as well we knew what
53:18 those we knew what those balances were
53:20 so we should we should have noted that
53:22 they that they were the balances
53:23 identified for 2000 at the end of 2017
53:27 the report was just dated September and
53:31 it wasn't the outstanding bonds as of
53:33 September it was as of the end of the
53:35 year 2017 ok maybe actually said yeah it
53:38 says September 30th okay thank you
53:49 any more questions on the depth review
53:55 actually I did sorry it was what do we
53:58 what's that's inside that on council
54:01 have we issued a council Matic bond so
54:03 the current bonds for council annek
54:05 bonds are paying for what well the cons
54:09 of matic bonds off the top my head they
54:14 were for there's a variety of reasons
54:21 for there was some police and we're
54:24 pulling that up now what will that we
54:26 might want to get that back to the
54:27 council so we can get you that accurate
54:29 information there's a number of debt
54:32 issuance you know what during the 2018
54:33 budget I found it here Highlands Park I
54:36 can answer my own question here there is
54:39 2006 2007 2009 and 2014
54:42 oh there's some 2014 Highland Park
54:46 facilities all right so it was under our
54:48 watch hmm hey thank you some of us over
54:53 you are off the hook
54:55 shall we proceed any other questions
54:57 nope nope all right all right okay so
55:01 let's talk up a little bit about
55:02 long-term financial model this is on
55:07 page 97 of the original packet so as we
55:14 as we talk about incorporating long term
55:18 council long term goals and financial
55:21 strategies we wanted to provide a way to
55:24 look at not only where we've been
55:27 historically and and if some of you
55:30 remember because the financial models
55:32 and a little bit different format
55:33 because it was it was it was big sheets
55:37 big spreadsheets and a lot of
55:39 information and so we wanted to
55:40 synthesize this down into a way that we
55:44 could quickly have a conversation about
55:46 where's our baseline where's our
55:48 starting point and if we do a B C or D
55:51 how does it look
55:53 and so we've integrated some potential
55:58 general fund debt service obligations
56:00 for projects that are
56:02 and in the CIP this is something that
56:04 the ad-hoc committee has been working on
56:07 to help the administration present this
56:10 information in a way that would be
56:12 useful for decision-making and so this
56:15 is a financial model is a living
56:18 document so when a decision is made
56:20 we're gonna update the model and we're
56:22 going to then you know continue to
56:25 provide this as a decision-making tool
56:27 because it identifies the revenues that
56:31 we anticipate expenditures that that we
56:35 expect and then that impact on an ending
56:37 fund balance and so we we look to do a
56:40 conservatively objective measure of our
56:45 our forecasts because we just didn't
56:47 want to be too optimistic so the model
56:51 provides a baseline scenario and I'll
56:54 walk through those assumptions here in a
56:55 little bit it was based on an analysis
56:59 of our historical and current financial
57:02 environment revenues operating and
57:05 capital expenditure forecast our current
57:08 debt and potential debt and then we look
57:11 to do some affordability analysis and
57:13 that's and I'll talk about that in the
57:15 financial indicator section but again
57:18 this model is updated routinely and the
57:22 ad hoc committee had some dis of great
57:25 work and had some good discussions about
57:29 putting together scenarios for how we
57:33 start to tackle primarily our
57:34 transportation issues so the next page I
57:38 want to just briefly cover the
57:42 assumptions that were used in our
57:44 financial model what you'll see this is
57:47 on page 97 I want to make sure I'm given
57:51 the right page number 98 excuse me
57:57 so our assumptions are where we start
58:00 with at the baseline we used an
58:03 assumption for general economic growth
58:05 for revenue unless otherwise noted and
58:08 so we use 3% for most of the scenarios
58:11 with the exception of scenario D we also
58:15 then going down the rows use specific
58:17 revenue assumptions for economic growth
58:19 and you might see that some might be the
58:22 same and you might say why be a no tax
58:25 we see as increasing 3% it's based on
58:28 the three-year average we wanted to
58:30 segregate that out because it's a major
58:32 source of revenue
58:33 just like we segregated out sales tax
58:35 and property tax and so you might say
58:36 that's just kind of irrelevant but we if
58:39 we wanted to look at a scenario where it
58:42 just had a deep decline it was available
58:44 to do that in a scenario sales tax
58:48 increasing again on a three-year average
58:50 is at a four percent so that's obviously
58:54 more and then you see property tax
58:56 because they're subject to the state law
58:58 and limitations of one percent plus any
59:01 new construction growth and you'll see
59:03 ncg that is what that means new
59:05 construction growth so that's added on
59:08 top of the one percent
59:10 and then we wanted to add in a
59:12 possibility of a new revenue source and
59:15 we put in new revenue because we don't
59:18 know what that is that that is something
59:19 for these future discussions of the
59:22 council on the expenditure side then we
59:24 used a general economic growth for
59:27 expenditures unless otherwise noted we
59:30 talked we we talked about do we just
59:33 have one for both general for revenues
59:36 and expenditures and so we wanted to
59:38 separate it out in case we wanted to
59:40 have a scenario that said revenues we
59:43 don't see any good outlook and
59:46 expenditures are just going to keep
59:48 rising so then we have a specific
59:50 expenditure assumptions and what we did
59:52 in the baseline is what we wanted to
59:53 make an assumption that we had annual
59:56 new staffing for enhanced levels of
59:58 service so we didn't define what that
59:59 level of service was but an enhanced
1:00:02 level of service so new staffing we
1:00:04 wanted to show about three and a half
1:00:07 percent
1:00:08 each year so that we that we were always
1:00:15 assuming that there would be some growth
1:00:17 in FTE they also wanted to put into play
1:00:22 and this is primarily where that some of
1:00:23 the biggest changes come because for
1:00:26 tackling some of the transportation
1:00:28 issues it means issuing debt and paying
1:00:31 a debt service payment and paying a
1:00:33 principal and interest payment and
1:00:35 that's what we were just talking about
1:00:36 what we have in the our current debt we
1:00:41 also included the obligation for the
1:00:43 transit-oriented development and that is
1:00:46 included in the baseline it's also
1:00:49 included in any scenario change that you
1:00:52 see in the line above but we did include
1:00:54 that because that has also been an
1:00:56 obligation that has been already
1:00:58 obligated in some cases in the the 2000
1:01:04 in the baseline the 2018 budget adopted
1:01:08 this does include the those budget
1:01:11 amendments that I talked about earlier
1:01:12 and that is those staffing changes and
1:01:15 the reauthorizations for a couple of
1:01:18 projects one comment I think of probably
1:01:24 many in the annual debt service
1:01:26 obligation as a percentage of the
1:01:27 expenditures in the baseline 4% I think
1:01:30 that should just be clear that this is
1:01:32 we're just talking about council Matic
1:01:34 bonds and this has nothing to do with
1:01:35 any voted in debt this is us just using
1:01:38 existing cash flows and here that's what
1:01:44 has its own restricted funds thank you
1:01:48 for bringing that up because if one
1:01:50 looks at those if you look at the any of
1:01:52 the reports a year on report or the 2018
1:01:54 mid-year report because it has all of
1:01:56 those funds if you were to look at the
1:01:59 the fund for voted in debt those tax
1:02:03 dollars go directly into that fund and
1:02:05 the debt service is paid out it so it
1:02:07 does not touch the general fund
1:02:08 it's the council Manek bonds where the
1:02:11 where the general fund has to transfer
1:02:13 some dollars to that fund so you see a
1:02:15 transfer in and then you see the debt
1:02:17 service going out so thank you for
1:02:18 bringing that up
1:02:20 deputy council president Matisse so
1:02:24 thank Thank You Jen I just had a couple
1:02:27 questions so I can better understand the
1:02:29 assumptions so with the annual new
1:02:32 staffing resources in scenario B which
1:02:37 which would be the economic downturn you
1:02:42 you were still having 3.5% for new
1:02:47 staffing okay and then likewise on
1:02:50 scenario B where there's an additional
1:02:54 source you still have that at 3.5% so
1:02:57 across the board really seeing that in
1:03:00 the assumptions anyway yes we left that
1:03:02 flat because then that would kind of
1:03:04 align with a a more conservative of
1:03:07 objective approach is that we may have
1:03:11 added staff and continued have to add
1:03:12 staff for delivering levels of service
1:03:15 and certainly that that's something in
1:03:17 an economic downturn is that it is it a
1:03:21 short chill is it a long a long term
1:03:24 recession and so there still may be a
1:03:26 plan going forward to continue to add
1:03:29 staff maybe not at that level but it was
1:03:32 it was just a way to show that we
1:03:34 routinely
1:03:35 are continuing to add staff to ensure
1:03:38 that we provide quality levels of
1:03:40 service okay and then the general
1:03:43 economic growth for expenditures is also
1:03:45 at 3% for the economic downturn so just
1:03:49 again flat across with your assumptions
1:03:52 okay I was trying to better understand
1:03:55 that Thanks tell us member winter Stein
1:03:56 I want to pick up on something where I
1:04:00 just said so I'm missing the point about
1:04:02 an economic downturn scenario B as an
1:04:05 economic downturn
1:04:06 adhi well I thought you said B so my
1:04:09 mistake that's how I'm looking at this
1:04:16 up above it says scenario B you're right
1:04:18 scenario D we've got to be in a D sorry
1:04:21 okay that it was D that I was talking
1:04:24 about okay thank you so I'm kind of
1:04:31 curious and and maybe this is something
1:04:33 for to bring back but I I think deputy
1:04:37 president batiste is brings up a really
1:04:40 good point which is if we're having an
1:04:42 economic downturn we're probably not
1:04:43 adding 3.5% in staffing and I'm curious
1:04:49 to see what would happen to that that
1:04:51 chart if we flattened out both the
1:04:54 revenues and the expenses Oh City
1:05:01 Administrator thank you
1:05:03 we can certainly run that scenario the
1:05:06 purpose of putting together these
1:05:08 scenarios was to just create some
1:05:11 bookends so that you can see under one
1:05:15 changing condition what sort of effect
1:05:18 does that have on the whole so that is
1:05:22 why you see staffing assumption
1:05:26 remaining constant across the scenarios
1:05:28 we just want to adjust one variable so
1:05:30 in this case we were adjusting the
1:05:32 revenue side of the equation and
1:05:34 scenario D so that you can just see that
1:05:37 impact but council members are are
1:05:40 correct under real-life conditions we
1:05:44 would make other adjustments to make
1:05:47 sure that we balanced out this is just
1:05:49 for painting a picture of what happens
1:05:51 if you have less revenue but you keep
1:05:55 other things constant
1:06:02 deputy council president patís Thank You
1:06:06 Emily so that was really the purpose of
1:06:10 my questions so with assumption modeling
1:06:12 that way you're as you're trying to look
1:06:15 across you're able to compare apples to
1:06:17 apples Thanks it comes from Winchester
1:06:23 thank you I think before we move off
1:06:27 this page those that didn't have the
1:06:29 opportunity that the rest of us did in
1:06:32 committee to review this this is really
1:06:35 the time to challenge some of the
1:06:37 assumptions that we have or at least
1:06:38 understand them I'd say maybe not at
1:06:40 this point let's really make sure we
1:06:42 understand each one of these before we
1:06:44 move on and I know that some of the
1:06:48 things that we wrestled with in
1:06:49 committee where you can like the head
1:06:52 count for example I think the original
1:06:54 proposal was just a fixed number and we
1:06:56 said no let's do it as a percent we
1:06:59 thought that that would would be a
1:07:00 better model and then and then this idea
1:07:05 scenario a was was everything in the
1:07:11 transportation TI p but we funded
1:07:13 ourselves we don't go ask for any
1:07:15 dollars all the unfunded portion of the
1:07:17 transportation TI p we just we its
1:07:20 existing revenues we find our savings
1:07:23 somewhere else we know we're going to
1:07:24 get some back because our debt
1:07:25 obligation is going to go down but this
1:07:27 was a scenario we just pay for it no no
1:07:30 ask of the people of for anything and
1:07:32 then B was no I'll just take half of it
1:07:36 thinking was what let's let's use our
1:07:42 existing revenue to fund half of the
1:07:47 unfunded transportation projects because
1:07:50 some of the transportation has funding
1:07:51 associated or we and we're forecasting
1:07:53 getting grant money and other sources of
1:07:55 money but there is an unfunded component
1:07:57 and I would just recommend I always keep
1:07:59 an electronic copy of the the CIP budget
1:08:01 at hand so I can always look at those
1:08:03 real quickly so I think that's very
1:08:05 handy to do so be said let's just do
1:08:08 half let's just fund half of that
1:08:10 outstanding balance and maybe just maybe
1:08:12 we'll get some projects under our
1:08:14 and and demonstrate to ourselves that we
1:08:17 can do this and we can do it well and
1:08:19 then maybe maybe that would be a time
1:08:22 where we go back out and ask the voters
1:08:25 to fund the balance of the unfunded half
1:08:29 and that's what C represents so funny is
1:08:35 fun at all don't ask for any new B is
1:08:39 without any new revenue fun half of the
1:08:42 unfunded balance and and C goes out and
1:08:45 asks the people for the revenue for the
1:08:49 other half of the unfunded balance does
1:08:51 that make sense those are the scenarios
1:08:57 thanks Paul that's helpful
1:08:59 cops remember Ramos just for me the
1:09:02 scenario D and I know what you're trying
1:09:04 to say
1:09:04 I mean trend only change one thing but
1:09:07 as you said the realistic part of it is
1:09:10 hard to look at it because if you just
1:09:12 assume everything may the expense side
1:09:14 just keeps growing but you just cut your
1:09:16 revenue you know that just wouldn't be
1:09:18 realistic so I find a hard time now you
1:09:21 say it's comparing apples that was to me
1:09:23 it changed at Apple to an orange so then
1:09:25 looking at that with the other without
1:09:27 making adjustments there which you we
1:09:30 would have to do it it doesn't give me a
1:09:32 good comparison that way so I guess the
1:09:35 challenge on the two columns there of
1:09:37 growth of expenditures 3% and the three
1:09:40 and a half percent growth of staffing it
1:09:44 makes it look like a lot worse than it
1:09:48 probably would councilmember hunt
1:09:53 thank you so I have a question about the
1:09:57 new construction growth and assessed
1:09:59 valuation that is held constant across
1:10:03 the model right
1:10:06 and then how how is that factored in
1:10:09 with the model so it's 1% plus new
1:10:13 construction growth in assessed
1:10:16 in the financial model what we identify
1:10:20 is a 1% growth in the property of
1:10:24 property tax that is not the same actual
1:10:28 growth in assessed valuation and so the
1:10:32 the 1% is what we calculate as being our
1:10:36 our limit based on those forecasts for
1:10:39 assessed valuations based on our growth
1:10:42 our growth projections and so then the
1:10:45 new construction value is is not a
1:10:48 static number that's also going up based
1:10:52 on our historical growth in new
1:10:54 construction I think some of the the
1:10:57 numbers are around 280 some thousand in
1:11:02 new construction growth and so that
1:11:05 we've we've taken and we just we
1:11:08 increase that based on our our new
1:11:11 construction growth of about three to
1:11:13 four percent every year but it's there's
1:11:16 there's a lot of detail in into that
1:11:18 line item because it because one it's
1:11:20 not static and the 1% is just based off
1:11:24 of the calculation of our assessed
1:11:28 valuations and you can see and that was
1:11:31 in one of the reports and we've got some
1:11:32 information in our our growth in our
1:11:35 assessed valuations later on in the
1:11:37 report and then I can show you how we
1:11:40 calculate that because we are assuming
1:11:43 that our property valuation this us
1:11:45 about that's just a depiction of that 1%
1:11:50 of that that dollar amounts so I can
1:11:54 answer that question maybe a little bit
1:11:55 later have some of your race so I have a
1:12:00 question and a concern my question is
1:12:02 what we're really trying to do here is
1:12:04 to establish what our realistic new debt
1:12:08 capacity is for capital improvements
1:12:13 using council Matic bonds is that the
1:12:16 intent of what we're driving at here yes
1:12:18 so my concern is we keep talking about
1:12:21 transportation and I don't think we've
1:12:23 ever had a discussion
1:12:23 as counsel about that so I I think that
1:12:27 it's fine as an ie
1:12:28 you know such as investing in the you
1:12:30 know more transportation initiatives but
1:12:32 I don't ever recall us having a
1:12:34 discussion about we're gonna look to
1:12:35 invest much more in transportation than
1:12:38 we are right now so this could be other
1:12:40 capital investments as well as
1:12:42 transportation less your mark fair okay
1:12:49 so noted I'm something of a wintry Stein
1:12:54 I'm gonna go back to what Vicki asked a
1:12:58 second ago I'm gonna stick bet with the
1:13:00 new construction growth I want to make
1:13:05 sure I have this correct so there's new
1:13:07 construction in 2018 and we're going to
1:13:10 there's going to be some assessment of
1:13:12 that value they're gonna be charged a
1:13:15 property tax and we're gonna we're gonna
1:13:18 get that in 2018 now that property in
1:13:22 its assessed value in 2019 will go into
1:13:27 the pool that has a limited growth of 1%
1:13:30 so so this so where it says and say if
1:13:35 so one percent plus ncg that ncg at one
1:13:39 year is into the 1% pool maximum growth
1:13:42 the next year so every subsequent year
1:13:46 the new construction growth goes goes
1:13:48 into the pool where it's limited there's
1:13:49 no limit to the new construction growth
1:13:51 because we don't we they've never been
1:13:52 taxed before there's no this is the
1:13:54 first assessment on some improvement on
1:13:56 the property the first year's assessment
1:13:59 it's got a value okay now that becomes
1:14:01 part of the assessment pool that we have
1:14:03 limited growth in in subsequent years so
1:14:06 it's you're nodding your head I think
1:14:07 that's that's important thank I mean
1:14:11 thank you for acknowledging my statement
1:14:14 of understanding deputy council
1:14:16 president impetus I just in in regard to
1:14:21 feedback on the assumptions one thing
1:14:25 that I was pleased to see is that when
1:14:26 we're we're talking about
1:14:29 the staffing resources that were also
1:14:32 listing enhanced levels of service that
1:14:34 to give us an opportunity that if we're
1:14:37 talking about that that we're talking
1:14:40 about what level of service we want to
1:14:43 have and something that we I I think you
1:14:46 know that we talked about during the
1:14:47 last budgeting session in terms of what
1:14:51 are the levels of service that we're
1:14:52 focusing on
1:15:01 any other questions or comments at the
1:15:03 moment alright let's proceed okay thank
1:15:07 you next page is really a key age in
1:15:17 most of this report because it's a chart
1:15:20 and it has the what for this discussion
1:15:26 purposes was to show all of the baseline
1:15:30 ending fund balance and this is general
1:15:33 fund how the ending fund balance is for
1:15:37 is forecasted so the baseline scenario a
1:15:41 scenario B scenario D so what happens
1:15:43 then to the ending fund balance forecast
1:15:47 when we lay it all over into one chart
1:15:51 and so what I wanted to point out is is
1:15:54 just some of the colors to show that
1:15:58 with the baseline you can see that the
1:16:02 purple ending fund balance starts at
1:16:07 they're all starting at the same point
1:16:09 starts at the just below 20 million
1:16:12 dollars and pretty much skyrockets
1:16:15 because one of the main reasons is there
1:16:20 would be no more debt that would be
1:16:22 issued because you can see in the
1:16:23 assumptions we're assuming additional
1:16:26 staffing we're assuming expenditure
1:16:28 growth at 3 percent we're assuming
1:16:30 revenue growth at 3 percent some a
1:16:32 little bit higher sales tax and so you
1:16:36 can see that this is a the purple line
1:16:39 is a very positive picture doing only
1:16:43 those things that are in the baseline
1:16:44 now that doesn't mean that we've
1:16:46 identified specifically but we've we've
1:16:48 identified a level of assumptions that
1:16:50 we would move forward with I want to
1:16:53 jump over and then talk about the
1:16:57 scenario a which is the orange line and
1:17:05 this is the exact opposite because this
1:17:07 is what I think was referred to and we
1:17:09 were talking about in our ad-hoc
1:17:11 committee as the apocalypse and so you
1:17:13 can see that ending fund balance
1:17:15 starting at just under twenty million
1:17:16 dollars goes severely downward into the
1:17:21 negative realm and so I just wanted to
1:17:24 give you both ends where we've got
1:17:27 baseline and we've got scenario a I just
1:17:31 wanted to then point out the green lines
1:17:33 in between are the council's reserve
1:17:36 policy so you see the dark green is
1:17:39 where the ceiling for your reserves are
1:17:44 identified in policy and then the light
1:17:46 green is the floor so that's the 15% of
1:17:50 those expenditures so you can see that's
1:17:51 that's kind of our target so we've got
1:17:56 the as a scenario that identified if we
1:17:59 tackled every piece of the unfunded
1:18:04 transportation projects in the CIP that
1:18:09 we would not have enough not enough
1:18:12 money in our ending fund balance in
1:18:14 order to accommodate so that that is
1:18:16 just not a sustainable scenario then we
1:18:19 go into scenario B and that is the blue
1:18:23 line and you can see that the blue line
1:18:26 does dip down in a few years primarily
1:18:30 because we have existing council Matic
1:18:33 debt we still have a payment but as you
1:18:35 can see in that in the amended graphed
1:18:38 for the debt that that was provided you
1:18:42 can see that that debt those debt
1:18:44 obligations were going down and so what
1:18:47 the blue line depicts is that we
1:18:49 continue to pay that debt if the council
1:18:51 chooses to issue debt for tackling some
1:18:55 projects we would dip down into our
1:18:58 reserves to do that all things being the
1:19:02 same in the assumptions but then we
1:19:04 would start to come back up because
1:19:05 again existing debt obligations drop off
1:19:08 but what this shows is that this it's
1:19:10 about a two point one two point five
1:19:14 million
1:19:14 our annual debt service and so basically
1:19:16 what this scenario shows is that we're
1:19:18 going to continually have about that
1:19:21 level of debt service about that four
1:19:24 percent five percent of expenditures
1:19:26 towards debt obligations console Matic
1:19:29 bonds so that's the blue line that
1:19:33 scenario see then was a scenario that
1:19:36 added in a source of revenue to help
1:19:38 either offset and remove some of the
1:19:43 obligation of the general fund but you
1:19:45 can see the yellow line is pretty close
1:19:49 to the baseline because the assumptions
1:19:51 showed about 1 million in the first year
1:19:56 and then kind of ramping up to about a
1:19:58 two million dollar revenue source that
1:20:01 would help to offset the general fund
1:20:03 paying the debt obligation so that again
1:20:06 is a is an upward movement and does not
1:20:09 impact or or dip into our reserve
1:20:14 targets and then we have the scenario D
1:20:18 which was to show that revenues would be
1:20:21 declining but our expenditures would
1:20:24 remain the same also shows that we would
1:20:27 go into an unsustainable mode and that
1:20:31 certainly as administrator moon
1:20:34 indicated is that yes the reality would
1:20:36 be that the council would be reacting to
1:20:39 offset and reduce expenditures should
1:20:42 the revenues decline but this was a way
1:20:45 to depict the scenarios to give try to
1:20:49 give a good clear understanding about if
1:20:51 if there was one scenario versus another
1:20:54 and so I would like to hear feedback and
1:20:58 certainly questions of the council
1:20:59 councilmember we're just not thank you
1:21:01 two questions
1:21:02 do you recall why did we start scenario
1:21:07 C when we did it looks from this it's
1:21:13 almost like next year but I mean that
1:21:18 wouldn't be we wouldn't do that right it
1:21:20 would be a couple years down the road
1:21:23 rather than so immediate
1:21:26 assumptions showed in the assumption
1:21:28 that serves 1 million two million so it
1:21:30 showed an example of and to look at the
1:21:34 start of the year that we wouldn't have
1:21:37 we wouldn't just you know it wouldn't be
1:21:39 a start at the beginning of the year
1:21:40 calendar year and all of a sudden we we
1:21:42 knew we were gonna have two million
1:21:44 dollars that's why I have the million
1:21:45 two to show that we would not have a you
1:21:48 know that full source of revenue well
1:21:50 I'm just saying from this these numbers
1:21:52 right here see tracks with the baseline
1:21:55 immediately and it seems to me the new
1:21:58 revenues would more likely kick in see
1:22:01 should track with B for a number of
1:22:04 years before the new revenue kicks in so
1:22:08 so I basically it looks like we're
1:22:10 taking some new revenue almost
1:22:12 immediately with C I'm just thinking it
1:22:14 was should kick in a little bit later
1:22:16 does that make sense yes
1:22:18 so that was my first question but you
1:22:20 have a response I mean do we provide the
1:22:23 year as to when it actually was when the
1:22:26 scenario C revenues were we're kicking
1:22:29 in it started around if you look about
1:22:31 2022 okay so I would expect that C curve
1:22:38 to take off we should track with the B
1:22:41 curve all the way to 2022 and then start
1:22:44 sloping up rather than starting right in
1:22:48 2018 so that's that I think it would
1:22:49 look a little bit different okay but
1:22:53 think about that I know I fully
1:22:55 understand okay all right all right then
1:22:58 the other question is about that
1:23:00 scenario D it doesn't mcgann it it says
1:23:06 in the assumptions I guess this is this
1:23:09 is supposed to be like a 1-year in 2021
1:23:11 or is this like we go zero looks like we
1:23:14 go zero in 2018 and just stay zero
1:23:17 forever in terms of the general economic
1:23:19 growth and and I wonder see that we
1:23:27 so this this downturn in 2021 doesn't
1:23:31 look like it looks like it's a downturn
1:23:32 starting in 2018 per these numbers that
1:23:35 are in this chart in front of us now so
1:23:37 I'm actually looking at the previous
1:23:38 page and seeing the numbers but looking
1:23:41 at this chart up here so that down and
1:23:45 so and so that is a scenario where we
1:23:47 just have this zero growth forevermore
1:23:51 okay so that's pretty extreme and I'm
1:23:56 not sure this model run even reflects
1:23:59 that oh it does okay it's tracking with
1:24:02 the until 2021 okay and then then it's
1:24:07 just assuming from 2021 onwards we're at
1:24:10 zero okay that one makes it okay now I
1:24:13 get that one because that one's tracking
1:24:15 would be as it should until there's a
1:24:16 turn a downturn okay don't remember hunt
1:24:25 green lines which are the 15% reserves
1:24:28 are in the 20% reserve target those are
1:24:31 the same for all scenarios but in
1:24:34 reality when they also change because
1:24:38 the reserve would change with the
1:24:39 different scenarios well well the reason
1:24:42 that they're that they're going up it is
1:24:43 because it's it's based on the
1:24:45 calculation of the expenditure in that
1:24:47 year and so the data behind this is is
1:24:50 calculating 15% of those expenditures
1:24:53 and those expenditures generally are
1:24:55 going up three percent so the reserve
1:24:58 requirement is going up just as it is
1:25:03 based on on the baseline because they're
1:25:05 all at three percent right so there's no
1:25:07 variability and that one and they're all
1:25:10 at they're all at 15 percent and 20
1:25:13 percent so so one things that's
1:25:18 interesting about this is you know I
1:25:20 feel like this is you know we Jam the
1:25:23 knobs one way and the JEM knobs the
1:25:25 other way and see what it sweeps through
1:25:26 and it's you know it's also thinking
1:25:29 like okay if I add lots of salt no salt
1:25:32 lots of pepper no pepper and in the end
1:25:34 there's give me some combination of salt
1:25:36 and pepper
1:25:37 to make a zesty meal and it seems like
1:25:40 something that sort of qualitatively
1:25:43 looks something like the scenario B
1:25:46 outcome right where you get down towards
1:25:48 some number that is somewhere close to
1:25:51 where our reserve goals are and that's
1:25:55 through some combination of what we take
1:25:58 on council Matic and what we fund with
1:26:01 alternative revenue sources but you know
1:26:04 I'm just sort of doing a spoiler alert
1:26:06 from where I hope we get to down the
1:26:08 road which is something that looks
1:26:09 vaguely like this maybe not
1:26:11 you know quite so beautifully right just
1:26:13 skimming the 15% line but something that
1:26:17 looks kind of like this that brings us
1:26:19 down towards our where we want to get to
1:26:23 with our ending fund balance and that in
1:26:25 terms of it
1:26:25 hockey sticking back up to use a good
1:26:28 Minnesota term later you know we can
1:26:31 figure out how to how to deal with that
1:26:33 as we when when we get to that good one
1:26:36 of the one of those are the good
1:26:37 problems to have thank you that I mean
1:26:42 the the purpose of of the different
1:26:46 scenarios was to do just that is that
1:26:49 was there a pathway forward that was
1:26:51 planned
1:26:52 and then according to financial policy
1:26:55 that the council would be adhering to
1:26:57 that is that you have a planned use of
1:27:00 your resources your reserves and that
1:27:05 you have a plan because when we look at
1:27:07 some of the indicators you would say
1:27:09 well operating deficits are not a good
1:27:11 thing however if there is a plan to go
1:27:17 into the green in this case with the
1:27:19 colors chosen on the graph is that
1:27:21 you're you're doing something and you're
1:27:25 working on issues and this is a
1:27:28 financial depiction of what happens if
1:27:32 you issue new debt and that was
1:27:35 primarily the purpose for coming up with
1:27:38 these the financial model is to try to
1:27:42 tackle
1:27:44 those issues regarding transportation
1:27:46 sure because because I'll just add at
1:27:49 some point having a really high ending
1:27:52 fund balance there's there's a level
1:27:55 beyond which it's it's it's just bad you
1:27:59 know bad public policy right because a
1:28:02 citizen in the city or a business owner
1:28:04 in the city could come to us and say you
1:28:06 know if we were at 60% right or some
1:28:10 some super high number and they're like
1:28:11 why are you raising so much money and
1:28:14 not spending it right like you haven't
1:28:17 all you have options you can take you
1:28:19 know you've got all this extra money you
1:28:20 can spend it or you can just not tax us
1:28:22 and you know collect a little less money
1:28:24 or slow down your rate of growth of
1:28:26 taxing and and do that as well so you
1:28:29 know I do think I have been happy that
1:28:32 I'm happy that we're above the Green
1:28:34 Line but you know I I would love us to
1:28:37 come up with a solution that gets us
1:28:39 back towards our stated goal I feel like
1:28:41 every year we talked about this we
1:28:43 talked about how lucky we are they were
1:28:44 above the line but you know at some
1:28:46 point it would be good to do that like I
1:28:49 said just because residents might feel
1:28:51 like hey you know what one solution is
1:28:53 just not taxes so much and of course
1:28:54 because we have such narrow taxation
1:28:57 mechanisms in this state and it's so
1:28:59 draconian to get money back once you
1:29:01 stop you know once you reduce a revenue
1:29:04 stream we're always careful not to not
1:29:06 to do that but it's but having having
1:29:09 policies that result in a net closer to
1:29:11 our goal I think is is is the is the
1:29:14 responsible thing to do with voters
1:29:16 money other questions oh come of
1:29:21 interest I well just in general I would
1:29:24 say that see you see is the scenario
1:29:28 again if you detach it from 2018 basis
1:29:32 there and reattach it to be around 2022
1:29:35 2023 then that starts to make the most
1:29:38 sense to me and it in it but it banks
1:29:40 upon us us kind of basically earning
1:29:45 some capital in terms of public trust
1:29:47 and what we can do with transportation
1:29:48 we're saying without any additional ask
1:29:50 we're you know we're gonna we're gonna
1:29:52 take the assets we've already collected
1:29:55 gonna do some important projects and and
1:29:58 and it's a little bit of a bat that says
1:30:01 and and if we do a good job and we think
1:30:05 we will do a good job then you know
1:30:07 there will be a better climate for us to
1:30:09 go ask for some new funding for the
1:30:11 balance of the unfunded transportation
1:30:14 projects in our CIP that's what that's
1:30:17 what scenario C says and I'm interested
1:30:20 in that scenario at the same time I do
1:30:24 want to take up the conversation that
1:30:26 Chris brought up about other portions we
1:30:29 have other asset classes in our CIP way
1:30:31 of facilities parks trails and
1:30:32 transportation and and I don't know if
1:30:36 we're prepared to have a conversation
1:30:37 about that tonight but there might be
1:30:38 good some get someone out onto the table
1:30:41 to discuss and I'm looking I'm looking
1:30:44 at the the CIP document right now of the
1:30:48 and it goes out for you know into the
1:30:50 future years there's a total of 238
1:30:52 million of unfunded capital
1:30:55 transportation is 161 of that 238 and
1:30:59 parks and trails are a total of 28 out
1:31:02 of that 238 perhaps we've been making an
1:31:06 assumption in this that because we've
1:31:09 been the public has a time and again
1:31:12 shown a willingness to tax themselves
1:31:16 for parks and open space acquisition and
1:31:18 trail related stuff that that as a
1:31:21 policy would be something that we would
1:31:23 expect to do in future years as well
1:31:26 perhaps to cover that on funded portion
1:31:28 of the capital plan which which I don't
1:31:32 know so I'm just putting I don't - I'm
1:31:35 just saying something I want to put any
1:31:36 words anybody's mouth and then and then
1:31:38 the facilities part is all in the future
1:31:41 years which means is out beyond 2022 and
1:31:44 it is it's unfunded Kippur Shin is 48
1:31:47 million so that's significantly that's
1:31:49 twice what the parks and trails is
1:31:51 almost and I'm not as familiar with that
1:31:54 because that's actually roll and roll up
1:31:56 of quite a few of the categories that's
1:31:58 only for asset classes but we have many
1:32:00 more categories than that in our CIP
1:32:03 and I'm not sure we're prepared at all
1:32:05 to have a more in-depth conversation
1:32:06 about that tonight but I think it would
1:32:09 be good to hear if from the
1:32:10 administration on what the thinking
1:32:13 might be about that part of the CIP
1:32:15 because it was it was when we got
1:32:18 together as the Finance Committee ad-hoc
1:32:21 committee it was definitely very strong
1:32:24 direction like let's focus on
1:32:26 transportation it's the biggest part and
1:32:28 it's the one that we don't have a track
1:32:32 record in terms of you know going to ask
1:32:36 for money for being successful we went
1:32:38 for the bond and still got 54% but that
1:32:41 still wasn't successful so and in
1:32:44 feeling also it reflected what we
1:32:46 thought was the most urgent need within
1:32:48 the community and we have a list of
1:32:51 projects that we think would make a
1:32:52 difference so let's put the focus of our
1:32:55 capital and in this whole model on
1:32:57 transportation but I've said what I
1:33:00 think maybe about parks and trails and
1:33:02 what the strategy might be for him
1:33:03 handling the unfunded portion there I'd
1:33:05 like to know what others think about
1:33:07 that and I and I like to hear we'd want
1:33:09 to get some more back on the facilities
1:33:11 part and I think we need to get that
1:33:12 from the administration because I don't
1:33:13 think we've ever talked about that so so
1:33:15 I want to be clear on one thing the a be
1:33:17 that impaneled the ad hoc Finance
1:33:19 Committee acts actually asked us to look
1:33:21 specifically at transportation and
1:33:23 that's why we focused on transportation
1:33:24 having said that here we are today
1:33:27 talking about citywide the bigger issues
1:33:29 and so you know that that's why I had
1:33:32 Hawk focuses with you thank you yeah you
1:33:35 know it's this whole conversation is
1:33:37 gonna be really interesting Paul because
1:33:39 I understand this idea of maybe starting
1:33:42 with council Matic and and you know
1:33:44 building some inertia I also think
1:33:46 there's a there's an alternate and
1:33:48 certainly not gonna solve it here
1:33:50 tonight but there's an alternate thing
1:33:51 that says if you know what you need to
1:33:52 do to start transport to get to address
1:33:54 transportation get cracking right and
1:33:56 use all the tools that are arsenal to
1:33:59 address it right I'm not sure that's the
1:34:01 right way to do it but you know I could
1:34:03 see somebody saying that somebody's
1:34:04 saying look you know we've said
1:34:06 transportations the thing just get going
1:34:08 do everything you can find every nickel
1:34:10 in every cushion in every couch
1:34:13 everywhere and and go do it so it'll be
1:34:16 interesting to figure out how how we
1:34:17 want to how we want to pursue that
1:34:19 Christian did you have something resin
1:34:21 no sorry okay other questions comments
1:34:25 and we're looking for other thoughts all
1:34:33 right
1:34:38 alright I'm just gonna quickly go
1:34:41 through because like I said that this
1:34:43 this page was was probably a page that
1:34:46 we could have just had maybe a smaller
1:34:48 packet and we could have talked
1:34:51 specifically about the model but the
1:34:53 again the this information is intended
1:34:55 to provide you with with a lot of detail
1:34:59 as we go into the the budget discussion
1:35:03 so thank you
1:35:03 council president marks for talking
1:35:05 about will continue the discussions on
1:35:11 revenue sources and capital expenditures
1:35:14 that might be made I want to then jump
1:35:18 to financial indicators because this is
1:35:21 this is where we are getting into kind
1:35:24 of testing how we're doing and so one of
1:35:28 the things that I wanted to point out is
1:35:30 that financial can our financial
1:35:34 condition is obviously something that we
1:35:39 want to make sure that we have the
1:35:41 ability to maintain existing levels of
1:35:44 service and that there are there are
1:35:47 things that impact there are local and
1:35:49 regional economic disruptions that often
1:35:53 get in the way of what we need to do to
1:35:57 meet demands and so what we wanted to
1:36:00 put together and this is the same as
1:36:02 last year but if you remember that these
1:36:04 were the large pages again which we
1:36:06 shrunk these down and pointed out some
1:36:11 retrospective and historical information
1:36:13 about where we've been and I'm going to
1:36:15 talk about each of the the indicators
1:36:18 that we have developed information for I
1:36:21 also just wanted to point out that there
1:36:24 are a number more indicators that are in
1:36:30 that would impact our environmental and
1:36:32 organizational factors that contribute
1:36:34 to our financial condition so that would
1:36:36 answer perhaps comes whenever
1:36:40 winter stands comment about
1:36:43 non-financial and so I just wanted to
1:36:46 make that point that those are in the
1:36:50 overall kind of matrix and I'll walk
1:36:53 through that we're in the process of
1:36:54 compiling this information and just kind
1:36:58 of wanted to let you know that how you
1:36:59 would read the the first page is that
1:37:02 we've done some work on the indicators
1:37:04 one two three six and partial of seven
1:37:07 we continue to add data to our our
1:37:13 master data and will continue to then go
1:37:17 out and look for comparative information
1:37:20 from other communities as well so
1:37:23 nonetheless I wanted to just briefly go
1:37:26 over that our indicators are based on
1:37:29 our baseline right now and certainly as
1:37:34 the council makes decisions then what we
1:37:35 do is we go back and we put that that
1:37:38 forecast or that those those assumptions
1:37:40 of the council or those decisions of the
1:37:42 council in and it serves as a test on
1:37:44 whether or not we're going to be
1:37:46 performing better or worse and helps us
1:37:51 take a a longer look at our financial
1:37:54 condition so what I wanted to point out
1:37:57 on page let's say I'm just trying to get
1:38:00 page numbers here on page 107 of the
1:38:05 packet that just kind of shows that flow
1:38:07 of some of those environmental factors
1:38:11 that impact our financial condition
1:38:16 there's organizational factors and then
1:38:18 there's certainly the financial factors
1:38:19 and we we the easy ones are the
1:38:21 financial factors because we we do
1:38:23 collect data and and we do want to
1:38:25 present it in a way that is helpful for
1:38:27 the council and then you see way up
1:38:30 above you can see those early warning
1:38:32 trends and you can see some of those
1:38:35 early warning trends are and I'll go
1:38:37 through those in the indicators that we
1:38:38 have prepared and and what you would
1:38:42 look for but it's intended to help the
1:38:44 council with decision making
1:38:48 and I have a description of each of the
1:38:50 indicators so if there isn't any
1:38:53 questions about the the overall plan for
1:38:56 putting a tool in place and continuing
1:38:58 to use it I'll go on with the indicators
1:39:02 the first one is revenue per capita and
1:39:05 so examining our revenue per capita and
1:39:09 this is the this is in comparison so per
1:39:11 capita is relative to the change in
1:39:13 population and the rate of inflation and
1:39:17 you can see historically that we have
1:39:20 had increasing net operating revenues
1:39:23 per capita and so you can see at the top
1:39:25 the warning trend would be is that if
1:39:26 they were decreasing because that would
1:39:29 mean is if our revenues were going down
1:39:31 per capita that means that we're not
1:39:33 able to maintain those existing levels
1:39:35 of service we would need to find new
1:39:37 sources of revenue or or certainly ways
1:39:41 to save money on the expenditure side
1:39:43 but it assumes that that the cost of
1:39:47 service is directly related to
1:39:48 population size and so we've put
1:39:51 together the data in the historical
1:39:54 information you can see how the numbers
1:39:56 play out these are actual numbers from
1:39:57 our audited financial statements the the
1:40:01 CPI and then we just we just do the math
1:40:04 and the population then creates that per
1:40:07 capita revenue and you so you can see
1:40:10 that is increasing historically Hausner
1:40:14 would just I'm Thank You Jen what type
1:40:19 of revenue are we talking about this is
1:40:22 just general fund so this is just
1:40:24 general this is just okay we can do we
1:40:27 could do any indicators on the different
1:40:30 types of revenues so if we were going to
1:40:31 look at this from a utility perspective
1:40:33 then you know those would be those rates
1:40:35 and the capital contributions I just
1:40:37 didn't see I thought that maybe it was
1:40:39 but I didn't see any where I know that's
1:40:41 primarily been our context tonight has
1:40:43 been general fund but I didn't I didn't
1:40:46 see that on there say specifically
1:40:48 general fund so thank you for that
1:40:50 tell me about transfers but when we're
1:40:55 talking about the general fund and
1:40:56 transfers what do you what would we be
1:40:59 referring to
1:41:00 what we referred to there is because in
1:41:03 fund accounting one fund transfers money
1:41:06 to another so we also include those
1:41:09 transfer dollars now some you might
1:41:12 think maybe a special revenue fund was
1:41:15 entrace fer some dollars into the
1:41:17 general fund because of some some
1:41:19 condition but we we want to be made
1:41:22 known that we are including transfers in
1:41:24 the the net operating revenues could you
1:41:29 give me an example of this example a
1:41:33 transfer into the general fund yeah
1:41:36 transfer into the general fund could be
1:41:39 from let's just and this is hard because
1:41:44 when we when we did our fund accounting
1:41:46 cleanup we shifted and we created
1:41:48 special revenue funds specifically for
1:41:52 like REIT so for example if you would
1:41:54 have the project that the general fund
1:41:58 was the project was left out of the
1:42:00 general fund so all the transactions
1:42:02 were being you know tracked in the
1:42:06 general fund but there was a source of
1:42:08 revenue that that was going to come from
1:42:10 readers were going to come from another
1:42:12 special revenue fund that we would
1:42:13 transfer in that revenue to tackle that
1:42:15 that one-time capital project so there's
1:42:20 not a lot of transfers that come into
1:42:21 the general fund right we're often
1:42:24 feeding other funds with general funds
1:42:26 so transfers as a percent I mean how
1:42:30 what percent is this above the total
1:42:34 revenue I'm gonna have to get you that
1:42:36 just get apart I don't want to guess
1:42:38 less than five I'm not a guess there one
1:42:40 could we provide that back okay sorry
1:42:43 they just said something which I was
1:42:45 wondering if this was true you said this
1:42:47 it's not common to transfer from other
1:42:50 funds in the general and yet you have a
1:42:51 title to your net operating revenues and
1:42:53 transfers like transfers had some
1:42:56 significance I just wasn't aware of what
1:42:58 that was so there was significance in in
1:43:02 tene because there was a million dollar
1:43:04 transfer from the because of the Malheur
1:43:08 bait property and so there there was a
1:43:11 transfer into the general fund so yeah
1:43:13 transaction that confuses us constantly
1:43:16 it never stops confusing us okay
1:43:18 it is a very complicated project the
1:43:21 purchase okay so so I'm can I'm confused
1:43:28 by this first that first off are these
1:43:31 in real dollars are actual dollars
1:43:34 revenue no I know they're actual dollars
1:43:37 are they in real dollars in other words
1:43:38 have you corrected are these in 2017
1:43:41 dollars all back NPV to current they are
1:43:47 they are real so in what year are they
1:43:51 then are they they're in 2017 dollars
1:43:53 they're in 2013 dollars what are they in
1:43:54 they are the actual for that year these
1:43:57 are the audited financial statement
1:43:59 that's not what I mean by real dollars I
1:44:00 mean for is it corrected for a certain
1:44:03 year's currency because they were
1:44:05 because they were in the past on the big
1:44:07 spreadsheet they were corrected for
1:44:10 inflation basically because otherwise
1:44:12 what I have to do here is I have to take
1:44:14 these numbers then I have to compare it
1:44:15 to the CPI and eyeball it myself right
1:44:17 what you want to do is you want to
1:44:19 divide these numbers out by the CPI to
1:44:21 get real dollars right I think so take
1:44:26 that as an for an offline I believe on
1:44:29 the bricks down the big spreadsheet we
1:44:31 corrected for two things we corrected
1:44:32 for population and then we corrected for
1:44:34 inflation right which should have given
1:44:36 us per capita in real dollars right not
1:44:40 just per capita because the thing that
1:44:42 the thing that I'm confused about and
1:44:44 I'm not ready to be I'm not ready to say
1:44:46 I'm alarmed yet but I thought that at
1:44:49 least before last year the big chart
1:44:51 showed is essentially flat in revenues
1:44:53 more or less in revenues per capita in
1:44:55 real dollars over time and this the the
1:44:59 first three years of this chart is
1:45:01 anything but right the the actual
1:45:04 operating revenue goes up 19.4% the
1:45:07 operating revenues transfer per capita
1:45:09 goes up by 17 percent meanwhile the CPI
1:45:11 only goes up by three point eight
1:45:13 percent I don't think that's what
1:45:15 previous years what we call the big
1:45:17 chart showed I think it showed over a
1:45:19 reasonable length timeline that those
1:45:22 numbers were flat because if those
1:45:23 numbers aren't flat then it means that
1:45:26 the cost of governance in the city is
1:45:27 going up even even taking into account
1:45:30 the fact that we get economies of scale
1:45:33 and some of our operations right some of
1:45:35 the things we do we can do with a larger
1:45:37 population that's harder to do with a
1:45:38 smaller population so you should at
1:45:40 least be staying flat in that kind of a
1:45:43 measure and it was in the big in the big
1:45:45 chart that we did in previous years but
1:45:47 it's not here so again I don't want to
1:45:50 say I'm alarmed yet but I want to say I
1:45:52 absolutely need to understand better
1:45:54 corrected for real dollars corrected for
1:45:56 inflation so so again divided by
1:45:58 population divided by inflation so that
1:46:01 we see what the real cost of governance
1:46:03 is over time so these are these are
1:46:06 revenues just revenues mm-hmm so I think
1:46:10 we can take a deeper dive than in on
1:46:12 your your view of last year as compared
1:46:18 to this year well the big chart that we
1:46:20 did did it for like 10 years right we
1:46:22 looked you have to be careful just
1:46:24 looking for three or four years right
1:46:25 you have to you have to take sort of
1:46:27 when we did it before we looked at a
1:46:29 longer timeline so you smoothed out sort
1:46:31 of local variations because you can get
1:46:33 little local blips that'll make things
1:46:35 look weird but both revenues and
1:46:38 expenditures in per capita real dollars
1:46:42 were essentially flat and that's what
1:46:44 made me comfortable with a lot of the
1:46:46 things we were doing this was two years
1:46:48 ago the conversation because it made me
1:46:51 say I could go to a resident in the city
1:46:53 and say the cost of government for you
1:46:55 isn't any worse you know the cost of
1:46:57 government for your yeah we're in any
1:47:00 worse for you than it was 10 years ago
1:47:01 right if I can't say that then I have to
1:47:05 ask myself a whole bunch of questions
1:47:09 that I want to have to ask myself about
1:47:11 the way that we're choosing to generate
1:47:14 and spend money and that was the whole
1:47:17 purpose of that of that big spreadsheet
1:47:20 and and so that's what that's why I need
1:47:23 to know a lot better about this per
1:47:26 capita in real dollars over a longer
1:47:28 time lines and
1:47:29 make sure that we don't have a problem
1:47:30 because this if I just looked at this
1:47:32 the fact that I mean he got allocate
1:47:35 expenditures also but in you want all
1:47:38 that stuff to track you want to say
1:47:40 we're asking of the people comparable
1:47:42 that we asked to the people ten years
1:47:43 ago we're spending comparable for people
1:47:46 that we were spending ten years ago and
1:47:47 you correct that for a population and
1:47:49 inflation will bring back the big all of
1:47:52 the data and so you can look at it in
1:47:54 that framework because we're looking at
1:47:57 the historical here and then we're
1:47:58 looking at the next page we're looking
1:48:00 at the forecast so we will certainly
1:48:03 include that when we have budget
1:48:06 discussions great okay that would help
1:48:08 me and and and I believe it'll show
1:48:11 things better than I'm envisioning them
1:48:12 in my head just looking at this one page
1:48:14 okay thanks oh then I'm just gonna move
1:48:23 on through then the revenues per capita
1:48:25 this is the projected this is this is
1:48:27 coming then from that moving forward
1:48:30 with the same information and and then
1:48:34 based on the baseline assumptions
1:48:42 the indicator to which is expenditures
1:48:45 per capita I do want to point out that
1:48:47 the warning trend would be this was a
1:48:49 correction and it is in the page 111
1:48:53 replacement that was supplemental
1:48:55 materials this was a typing error and it
1:49:01 should say increasing that operating
1:49:03 revenue expenditures per capita
1:49:06 obviously with changing expenditures if
1:49:10 expenditures are going up relative to
1:49:12 population changes that that would mean
1:49:15 that the cost of providing services is
1:49:18 outstripping the ability the community's
1:49:20 ability to pay it also indicates - if
1:49:24 there is an increase in spending that
1:49:27 can be greater than accounted for then
1:49:30 the inflation or the addition of new
1:49:33 services and here's the replacement page
1:49:37 to show the warning trend would be
1:49:39 increasing net operating expenditures
1:49:44 per capita again we showed the same
1:49:47 information from a historical
1:49:49 perspective from 2013 as council
1:49:54 president Mart's indicated last year's
1:49:57 sheets had information that had a
1:50:02 significantly more historical data in
1:50:05 there and so our shift to move some
1:50:09 things around we will again do that
1:50:12 deeper dive but you can see in the
1:50:14 expenditures again when we try to depict
1:50:17 that in charts we show per household and
1:50:21 per capita pretty much the same in in
1:50:25 changing from expended one year to the
1:50:29 next there was a question by a
1:50:31 councilmember ray with regards to what
1:50:34 happened in 2021 I provided an
1:50:38 explanation on that this was some of the
1:50:41 impact of our debt obligation our annual
1:50:44 debt obligation dropping off and
1:50:49 the then the the general economic change
1:50:52 in expenditures is 3% so we don't have a
1:50:55 full three percent year-over-year so in
1:50:59 a couple of years we have about two
1:51:02 percent and so we have population
1:51:04 changes increasing at the two percent
1:51:06 level and so all of a sudden we have
1:51:08 this blip in that third year because our
1:51:11 debt service has dropped down in the and
1:51:14 the change year over over a year is not
1:51:16 apples to apples again like I indicated
1:51:19 in my response and if this had been
1:51:22 extended out into 2023 we would see
1:51:26 another funky change in expenditures for
1:51:32 per capita expenditures and per
1:51:34 household expenditures to go upward
1:51:37 similar to 2021 so so we are seeing so
1:51:43 the sign that says warning trend would
1:51:45 be increasing that operating expenses
1:51:47 per capita and that's exactly what we're
1:51:48 seeing so we've got the warnings that we
1:51:51 have warning sign mm-hmm okay yes and
1:51:55 and so per capita expenditures over four
1:51:59 years have gone up 26% but CPI is only
1:52:02 gone up ten point three percent so we're
1:52:04 outpacing inflation so that's
1:52:08 hypothetically a problem again it looks
1:52:14 different than when we talked about this
1:52:16 either a year two ago but this concerns
1:52:19 me it's noted and we'll go back and make
1:52:23 sure that the information provided and
1:52:25 what changed in these in this depiction
1:52:35 other questions all right indicator 3 is
1:52:41 operating deficits the warning trend is
1:52:43 increasing general fund operating
1:52:44 deficits I talked a little bit about
1:52:46 this when we were looking at the
1:52:49 financial model when we were looking at
1:52:52 scenario B that it would look like it
1:52:58 was an operating deficit again this
1:53:03 occurs when expenditures are exceeding
1:53:06 revenues it doesn't mean that the budget
1:53:08 is out of balance because reserves are
1:53:10 used because reserves are a source to be
1:53:14 used to fund services and so it does
1:53:19 mean that in a current year it doesn't
1:53:22 mean that the government is spending
1:53:24 more than its receiving there could be
1:53:27 things like an emergency in one year and
1:53:30 then not the next but for the most part
1:53:34 is that an operating deficit in one year
1:53:37 is not a cause for concern it's when it
1:53:40 happens over multiple years and there's
1:53:42 not a plan in place and the council does
1:53:45 again as I stated have financial policy
1:53:49 that identifies how you handle operating
1:53:52 deficits over time how you handle
1:53:56 spending reserves or bringing reserves
1:53:59 back up into your into your policy
1:54:02 targets and so this is something that I
1:54:06 wanted to point out too with regards to
1:54:08 credit raging firms when they look at
1:54:12 operating deficit it's certainly a minor
1:54:15 warning signal but then they would at be
1:54:18 asking for a plan and so certainly any
1:54:22 large deficit more than more than 10%
1:54:25 would also be something that the credit
1:54:28 raiders would ask for more information
1:54:32 about so I'm sorry what assumptions are
1:54:39 we using why why are we seeing a change
1:54:45 out at 20 20 20
1:54:47 20:22 because if you if you if you
1:54:50 append the projected on to the
1:54:52 historical for most of this you get sort
1:54:54 of a little back and forth oscillation
1:54:57 of some kind but then you get this you
1:54:59 get this step out around 2020 and all of
1:55:01 a sudden you're above zero and you stay
1:55:03 above zero what's that about
1:55:05 well one of the one of the things that
1:55:08 we talked about was the where our debt
1:55:11 service starts starts to be reduced and
1:55:13 so this does not include the any new
1:55:18 debt right now this is just a look at
1:55:21 where we pelvis right that should make
1:55:23 it better and that's why you see the
1:55:25 operating deficits on the projected side
1:55:27 going out going above the negative sorry
1:55:32 an operating deficit is a good thing
1:55:34 the well I'm not saying the operating
1:55:37 deficit is a good thing this is just how
1:55:39 we're looking at this indicator based on
1:55:42 the operating deficit revenues over
1:55:44 expenditures and every year so as we go
1:55:47 into the outer years in the baseline
1:55:50 that that the the color I'm going to go
1:55:55 back to the color of the line there was
1:55:58 no operating deficit in some of those
1:56:00 years in the outer ears now I'm super
1:56:02 confused deficit so a positive number
1:56:04 means a deficit or does it positive
1:56:07 number mean a surplus the positive
1:56:09 number means a surplus thank you okay
1:56:12 now I get it
1:56:13 so rising surpluses would be a warning
1:56:16 sign no it would not be a warning sign
1:56:20 it would be the the warning would be
1:56:23 that if we continued to be in the
1:56:25 negative then that would be problematic
1:56:27 but in this case our current our current
1:56:31 revenues over expenditures forecast
1:56:34 shows that we would not have we would
1:56:37 not have operating deficits so therefore
1:56:40 there would be no warning right okay
1:56:43 nothing to warn us I would heartily
1:56:44 encourage either calling this operating
1:56:46 surpluses or inverting the graph right
1:56:49 because the title on the thing is the
1:56:51 positive value of the thing right and
1:56:53 this is not a measure of operating
1:56:56 deficits as a measure of operating
1:56:58 surpluses right
1:56:59 this is a measure of operating deficits
1:57:03 because that is that is the warning but
1:57:06 in this case in this in these scenarios
1:57:08 in these forecasts we do not have one so
1:57:11 certainly I think this is the how the
1:57:15 indicator Jennifer let me tell you as a
1:57:18 math person the warning says increasing
1:57:21 increasing in this chart is not a bad
1:57:23 thing decreasing is a bad thing
1:57:25 so something some combination of the
1:57:27 warning sign and the title of the chart
1:57:29 and what whether you choose to invert
1:57:32 the chart or not but anybody that is not
1:57:34 a map person or not a finance person is
1:57:36 going to be very confused by this okay
1:57:37 I'm quite confident that that's the case
1:57:39 because you see the increasing write on
1:57:42 the warning as this number is increasing
1:57:44 and that's actually a good thing right
1:57:46 but it took some time for me to work
1:57:48 through what that was so I just ask that
1:57:49 you consider whether there's some
1:57:51 combination of how we word this and how
1:57:53 we show this that makes it more clear
1:57:55 for anybody who's going to take a look
1:57:57 at this because I'm sure if I'm confused
1:57:59 there will be other people working we
1:58:00 will work on depicting it in a better
1:58:02 manner and a better framework for the so
1:58:04 that the community can understand it
1:58:05 Thanks before we move on
1:58:07 Toula could you explain it to me so I
1:58:09 can understand yeah I really understand
1:58:13 I'm not tracking you sure so above the
1:58:16 nice and calm
1:58:17 above the line is a surplus at which
1:58:19 chart page which are you looking at I'm
1:58:20 gonna make sure I'm in the right age 114
1:58:23 right operating deficits historical is
1:58:26 the top charge so above the line is the
1:58:28 surplus which chart are you on the top
1:58:29 one the top one either they're both the
1:58:32 same for both of them above zero is a
1:58:34 surplus below zero is a deficit so when
1:58:39 you go back one page to increasing
1:58:41 general fund deficits as a percentage of
1:58:44 net operating revenues that would be a
1:58:45 warning trend right what that means okay
1:58:48 wait hold on okay moving on warning
1:58:50 trend would be increasing general fund
1:58:52 operating deficits so the deficit is
1:58:54 increasing if the deficit is increasing
1:58:57 that's a warning sign so I so okay it's
1:58:59 a-okay it's right that's right
1:59:04 what's that that's a deficit that's
1:59:06 growing right value is getting large yes
1:59:10 so so it means a chart that is it has an
1:59:12 increasingly negative value that's what
1:59:14 means going further into deficit that's
1:59:17 right right okay all right okay so and
1:59:21 so what is your concern my concern is
1:59:24 that first of all if I see something
1:59:27 that's titled deficits I'm used to the
1:59:31 the title of a chart being a the
1:59:34 positive value of something and secondly
1:59:36 is it if I see increasing I think well
1:59:41 it's increasing so so we've got a
1:59:43 problem
1:59:43 you lost me right there where are you
1:59:44 seeing the word increasing what are you
1:59:46 talking about under the warning trend
1:59:47 would be says increasing general fund
1:59:49 operating deficits yep you're free to
1:59:53 disagree with my date with my understand
1:59:56 what it was so what's the problem with
1:59:57 that phrase increasing deficits because
1:59:59 I look at that chart and that charts
2:00:01 increasing so we've got a problem no no
2:00:04 it doesn't it's not increasing it did
2:00:06 from 13 to 14 the deficit increased and
2:00:09 it took a little dip in 15 to 16 but
2:00:12 it's but the value of the chart is
2:00:16 increasing over time moving up into the
2:00:18 right yeah growing I know that okay okay
2:00:25 again you're free disagree with my
2:00:27 concern well I hear what you're saying
2:00:30 now yeah I don't this you don't yeah I
2:00:36 see that this I know that a growing
2:00:38 negative number would be a bad thing
2:00:40 we're not seeing a growing negative
2:00:41 number gotcha
2:00:42 so that's good right council member ray
2:00:47 Jen thank you very much for your earlier
2:00:49 responses to my questions that we're
2:00:51 real helpful the one that I do want to
2:00:52 kind of dive a little bit into is is
2:00:55 here because in our projections for 18
2:00:58 we're showing a deficit of nine hundred
2:01:01 twenty three thousand dollars and right
2:01:03 now where we have a surplus of 1.2
2:01:05 million dollars and so I understand that
2:01:08 there's some guidance that's driving
2:01:09 that number I just like to understand
2:01:11 the guidance of why we why we're going
2:01:14 to have why we have the discrepancy
2:01:15 between what we're seeing you know what
2:01:16 we're
2:01:17 um the we could have we could have
2:01:22 multiple charts than to show the the
2:01:24 operating deficits or surpluses or or
2:01:28 how it's depicted up into the right yes
2:01:31 based on the budget based on the
2:01:33 council's expectation that there would
2:01:35 be an operating deficit in 2018 we could
2:01:40 also show then and I think it's
2:01:43 something that will be an important
2:01:46 piece as we get better depiction of this
2:01:48 is that when we start to forecast the
2:01:51 year on 2018 we can show the same chart
2:01:56 inverted to show how what were what
2:02:00 we're forecasting for the operating
2:02:01 deficits so I think will will properly
2:02:05 identify what is what is the budget
2:02:09 versus forecast then as we bring back
2:02:12 more information other questions
2:02:21 okay thank you indicator six this is
2:02:26 capital outlay this is one that commonly
2:02:33 and and again this is this is general
2:02:36 fund capital outlay but this is just
2:02:40 another indicator that in the warning
2:02:43 trend would be that three or more year
2:02:46 decline in capital outlay might mean
2:02:49 that there are some challenges with
2:02:52 keeping up with vehicle and equipment
2:02:56 and the maintenance of that referred to
2:02:58 as maybe capital outlay so we've
2:03:03 replacing items in the general fund or
2:03:07 capital outlay items that do not make
2:03:09 the CIP that is something that we wanted
2:03:12 to show historically on the the second
2:03:15 chart is where we wanted to depict CIP
2:03:18 and so this is one that is to show that
2:03:24 we're we're working towards putting
2:03:26 together these tools and to let the
2:03:31 council see the see the portion that has
2:03:35 been identified for total capital outlay
2:03:38 it is rather all over the place but
2:03:42 nonetheless it's something that can help
2:03:46 to test how we're doing in our financial
2:03:50 condition because our smaller assets are
2:03:53 important as well as the bigger objects
2:03:57 that are in CIP and then the final
2:04:02 indicator so you can ask a question so
2:04:05 this is another one that if you tie
2:04:06 together the historical would be
2:04:08 projected like if I just look at the
2:04:10 historical I go oh I think we may have
2:04:12 that warning trend right but if you tie
2:04:15 it together with the projected what you
2:04:17 get is sort of a back and forth squiggle
2:04:19 a little bit right and so it's not
2:04:21 necessarily I guess it's still is it
2:04:29 still generally coming down there's high
2:04:31 there's highs and lows but we go from
2:04:34 that's generally in the 1 and a half to
2:04:37 three percent range to a regime that is
2:04:40 generally sub 1% right so would you say
2:04:44 that that warning trend is is is
2:04:49 activated on this on this indicator
2:04:53 administrator moon not yeah not yet I
2:04:56 think this is a great tool for us to
2:04:58 just watch over time and make sure we
2:05:01 are thinking about our replacement of
2:05:03 smaller capital assets if we go back in
2:05:07 time beyond 2013 we may see a different
2:05:10 pattern from year to year you have
2:05:13 different pieces of equipment that come
2:05:15 due some might be really big and create
2:05:18 a little spike on the next year you may
2:05:20 not have that so there's a good deal of
2:05:23 variability from year to year I would
2:05:25 also say in the projection we have some
2:05:28 work to do
2:05:29 to make sure that we're forecasting
2:05:30 accurately into the future for those
2:05:32 smaller capital needs so as we think
2:05:36 about our fleet replacement you know how
2:05:39 we certainly have a schedule but we can
2:05:42 analyze you know how to spread things
2:05:44 out in a better way and so I would I
2:05:46 would expect that we don't fall as lows
2:05:51 as shown in the projection and that we
2:05:54 stay somewhere around whatever that
2:05:56 trend line has been historically but I
2:05:59 think the purpose of the chart is just
2:06:01 to be mindful that we we should assume
2:06:04 that we have an annual obligation to
2:06:06 keep up with those replacements and then
2:06:08 if we underfund we're putting service
2:06:12 delivery at risk
2:06:14 do we have an idea of what that number
2:06:18 should be that's an excellent question I
2:06:22 don't off the top of my head I think we
2:06:24 do on our on our fleet side and that
2:06:27 tends to capture
2:06:30 larger more expensive pieces of
2:06:32 equipment I don't have that off the top
2:06:34 of my head and then there's other pieces
2:06:37 that are part of capital outlay that
2:06:40 we're developing asset management plans
2:06:42 for yep other questions
2:06:45 that's member hunt what are the
2:06:48 asterisks indicate what are they
2:06:51 indicate on the years for that one I
2:06:53 don't see them on the other one excuse
2:06:59 me this may have been a change in the in
2:07:01 the formatting and so I'll need to get
2:07:04 what that note is because that didn't
2:07:07 get transferred
2:07:16 their questions right I'm just gonna
2:07:21 move quickly through the the indicator
2:07:24 number seven this is property values
2:07:26 both historical and projected again it's
2:07:30 based on the assessed valuation these
2:07:35 are the King County assessed valuations
2:07:39 from a historical perspective and then
2:07:42 these are the growth so I'm going to
2:07:43 shift to page 118 and just point out in
2:07:49 the the assessed valuation numbers are
2:07:53 based on what we we are seeing
2:07:59 historically and what we have that are
2:08:01 coming from the projects in the pipeline
2:08:03 and so this is the number where we get
2:08:06 that that 1% the limitations for in
2:08:10 order for us to forecast property taxes
2:08:13 and you can see that the assessed
2:08:14 valuation in this particular projected
2:08:18 information is going up and so I just
2:08:22 wanted to circle back and let you know
2:08:24 this is the dollar amount where we get
2:08:26 our property tax estimates going forward
2:08:31 so I struggle a little bit with this one
2:08:34 because you could by just putting more
2:08:38 stuff by having more development swamp
2:08:41 what's actually going on like I it with
2:08:44 a measure like this you could have the
2:08:46 average home sale price be dropping
2:08:49 right but as long as as long as you are
2:08:52 growing faster than housing prices are
2:08:55 dropping you would see a positive number
2:08:56 so my question is is there any way the
2:08:59 same way we talked about revenues and
2:09:01 expenses as per capita in real dollars
2:09:04 is there some divisor that we can put
2:09:07 the this is the numerators the divisor
2:09:09 we can put this over such that we can
2:09:12 measure how this is for a business that
2:09:16 has a certain number of square feet or a
2:09:17 homeowner for a certain risk square feet
2:09:19 I mean what you what what I'd one in a
2:09:22 perfect world if I could wave a magic
2:09:23 wand would be like the value of
2:09:26 commercial real estate over the
2:09:27 commercial square feet the value of
2:09:29 residential
2:09:30 over the residential square feet right
2:09:32 and then you would get commercial per
2:09:34 square foot you'd get residential per
2:09:36 square foot and then you would really
2:09:38 experience what I mean we could sort of
2:09:40 talk about what the average homeowner or
2:09:42 business owner is experiencing and I
2:09:45 have no idea if any of that information
2:09:46 is available or how easy it would be to
2:09:48 get I don't know just that that that
2:09:51 would be super we're taking down this
2:09:54 and again these are indicators that
2:09:56 we're starting to pull together so that
2:09:59 we can start having these conversations
2:10:00 so appreciate that and let's remember
2:10:06 winter stuff yes so historical that's
2:10:09 easy to get you just go look it up
2:10:13 pretty daring to project rising property
2:10:17 values in the future well this this is
2:10:19 something that the the crystal ball it's
2:10:22 it's a hard one to I mean it's it's hard
2:10:24 to predict these things and so we we
2:10:26 have to put something out there as a
2:10:27 starting point as a talking point and
2:10:29 then we're not afraid to have holes
2:10:32 punched in our our assumptions over our
2:10:35 information so yeah it is a risky so why
2:10:40 why even why look forward at this one I
2:10:43 mean we know we just we know what's
2:10:45 happening mm-hmm right because we don't
2:10:50 there's there's there's so many factors
2:10:53 in the environment that that drive
2:10:56 assessed valuations most and I don't
2:11:00 know how we would manage to a forecast
2:11:03 of property valuation changes so I think
2:11:10 tracking it I get tracking it that's
2:11:12 absolutely fine as a look this is what
2:11:14 it's okay we've got next year's numbers
2:11:17 in this is what it is I just don't know
2:11:20 the value of projecting anything into
2:11:21 the future in this way because it's a
2:11:23 major source of revenue and we do want
2:11:27 something in the financial model that it
2:11:30 identifies property tax as add is a
2:11:35 source and the only way that we get
2:11:37 there is is the you know the formula to
2:11:40 identify what our annual levy is gonna
2:11:43 be okay so then I would want to track
2:11:45 how it's happening care compared to our
2:11:48 our baseline or our basis that's what I
2:11:52 want to track hey so you're providing
2:11:55 the actual but what I want to know is
2:11:57 what it is to our base sofiane are so
2:11:58 okay so that makes sense so so so we
2:12:01 actually if I we this is and this is
2:12:03 this is not total this is total
2:12:06 valuation or just like average increase
2:12:09 this is this is total valuation this is
2:12:12 okay which it would be averages okay
2:12:17 yeah so I would think is a key indicator
2:12:19 I just want to know what is it doing
2:12:22 compared to what we are in using in our
2:12:24 forecast if we're using an 8% I already
2:12:27 ate no 2018 so for we don't know 2019
2:12:31 yet that's correct right
2:12:33 okay so let's track how it does compared
2:12:35 to what's what we forecasted okay other
2:12:41 questions comes from array um this is
2:12:43 this is great I just want to start by
2:12:45 saying this is great stuff since we're
2:12:48 gonna get back and the routine of doing
2:12:50 quarterly updates it would be I think
2:12:51 really useful to see these numbers on a
2:12:55 quarterly basis instead the anyone
2:12:57 particularly relates to property because
2:12:59 it can be an early warning indicator of
2:13:01 an impending doom if we start to see
2:13:04 property values tank and we've seen that
2:13:07 happen before so if we can have a little
2:13:09 higher level of granularity than just
2:13:11 the annual numbers I think that would
2:13:12 provide us all kind of some some good
2:13:15 early warnings to take some corrective
2:13:17 action with so but I love this stuff
2:13:24 other questions
2:13:29 all right so then let's let's move on
2:13:31 this is intended of the next session the
2:13:35 lat the last section is about revenue
2:13:37 sources and this talks about current
2:13:41 revenue sources but I also wanted to
2:13:43 just briefly touch base on some
2:13:46 information for information purposes
2:13:47 only was alternative revenue so what I
2:13:51 wanted to provide for the council here
2:13:53 is just a look at our current revenue
2:13:56 sources this is information all city
2:14:00 funds so this is not only the general
2:14:03 fund but it also includes all of those
2:14:05 revenue sources and you can see that
2:14:07 there's a large portion for charges for
2:14:09 goods and services because it includes
2:14:10 the utility funds and that's those
2:14:12 utility rates that we charge just to go
2:14:15 back we're on page 119 of the packet of
2:14:17 information the information in here is
2:14:23 intended to give you historical actual
2:14:26 levies that we have received in and then
2:14:31 we have then the forecasts for the
2:14:35 different types of revenues that that we
2:14:37 have put out you can see a number of
2:14:41 different ways that we've provided this
2:14:44 information so on the next page 120 you
2:14:47 can see the authorized levy amounts also
2:14:50 wanted to provide the council with that
2:14:52 property tax distribution so when a
2:14:54 property owner receives their their tax
2:14:57 bill not all of those monies go to the
2:14:59 city of Issaquah there is about 10% of
2:15:02 the property tax that would go to the
2:15:05 city of Vista that's the blue pie piece
2:15:07 that's coming out and so we wanted to
2:15:11 make sure that this information was
2:15:14 available next page this is the levy
2:15:17 rates one of the things that I think we
2:15:21 talked about here but I wanted to kind
2:15:23 of circle back to was about that when we
2:15:27 when we predict assessed value and we
2:15:30 predict what the property tax levy would
2:15:33 be as the assessed value goes up the the
2:15:37 the property because we're limited with
2:15:39 that 1% the actual rate goes down and in
2:15:43 the chart at the top of the page it
2:15:45 identifies the the total the dollar for
2:15:50 in 2018 per thousand and assessed
2:15:53 valuation I also wanted to shift out
2:15:56 that there is the general levy or the
2:15:59 regular tax rate of about 87 cents and
2:16:01 then you have that access tax rate and
2:16:04 that's the the voter approved levy that
2:16:06 does not hit the general fund but it but
2:16:09 it show you that that when our
2:16:11 valuations go up and our ability to set
2:16:15 the property tax rate it is just an
2:16:17 automatic going downward then I just
2:16:23 wanted to show you those assessed
2:16:24 evaluations this is a lot of small
2:16:26 numbers in a space to show you what
2:16:30 those actual assessed valuations were as
2:16:32 well as there's that new construction
2:16:34 value of about the two hundred and I I
2:16:41 knew I remembered a number about two
2:16:42 hundred eighty but that was 2017 in 2018
2:16:47 we actually had information from King
2:16:51 County that it did go down some so it is
2:16:54 one that's hard to predict other
2:16:56 information then for the council
2:16:59 historical residential home values and
2:17:02 at the bottom of the page you can see
2:17:04 some average valued home and the changes
2:17:08 year-over-year that's a question about
2:17:10 that so you've got that that value was
2:17:14 obtained from Zillow mmm-hmm do we have
2:17:17 a more rigorous way to get that number
2:17:21 other than Zillow because I seem to
2:17:23 recall not necessarily in City Council
2:17:28 but some question about how Zillow's
2:17:31 mechanism and whether it's accurate and
2:17:33 all that kind of stuff and we're working
2:17:35 on making sure that we have that we have
2:17:38 the right source so certainly
2:17:41 something as we continue to build on our
2:17:43 tools for understanding where we are
2:17:46 we've been and where we want to go we'll
2:17:48 continue to have better sources and the
2:17:52 Multiple Listing Service doesn't make
2:17:54 that kind of information available well
2:17:56 they do that make that kind of available
2:17:57 at the time of this report this is my
2:18:00 understanding it was what had been used
2:18:01 in the past and again and we're working
2:18:03 to strengthen our tools and the
2:18:05 information that we produce okay I don't
2:18:07 have anything against Zillow just if
2:18:09 there's a if there's a more accurate
2:18:10 mechanism I've just seen Zillow stuff in
2:18:12 the past that I was sort of a
2:18:13 head-scratcher it was like I would
2:18:15 didn't have a lot of confidence and
2:18:16 there are numbers and then when we go to
2:18:20 page 122 this is information and does
2:18:24 some comparisons to other cities what we
2:18:28 wanted to do is show the the only the
2:18:31 city portion by community and the change
2:18:35 in the the rates just a quick snapshot
2:18:40 of you you can see the city portion and
2:18:44 the total rate and then the percentage
2:18:46 of the total and so from 2016 to this
2:18:51 current year that's at ten percent of
2:18:53 the total tax bill the city of Issaquah
2:18:56 collects or that just over a dollar for
2:18:59 per thousand of assessed valuation you
2:19:02 can see how we compare two cities from
2:19:04 Bellevue to Kirkland Redmond Sammamish
2:19:08 and in smaller communities counts
2:19:12 remember ray why is our number so low
2:19:14 because we have our assessed evaluation
2:19:18 is it is what it is and the property tax
2:19:24 limitation of 1% and that is I mean that
2:19:31 that's the math okay I mean I just
2:19:34 always you know a little bit of
2:19:35 competition with Sammamish right and and
2:19:37 they're killing us here and a dollar
2:19:39 seven now
2:19:40 it's all in perspective we are not
2:19:44 aligned no this is so so I was gonna
2:19:48 come out of this my comments are not
2:19:50 reflected they're not aimed at what you
2:19:52 just said but I think this is super
2:19:54 super important and I'm just gonna get
2:19:56 on a on a high hog here just for 60
2:19:59 seconds this is the flipside of all the
2:20:04 traffic and concerns that our community
2:20:07 has had around growth over the last
2:20:10 thirty years this is when you talk about
2:20:13 old Issaquah and where did old Issaquah
2:20:15 go we made a decision thirty years ago
2:20:18 and have continued to execute public
2:20:20 policy around having a well rounded city
2:20:23 that has commercial and retail and
2:20:26 residential and so when you see we are
2:20:30 able to function with a relatively lower
2:20:35 cost to our residents to our homeowners
2:20:39 than many of our comparable cities on
2:20:41 the east side this is the upside part of
2:20:44 the upside and there's there's a number
2:20:47 of having of being a real city and not
2:20:50 just being a bedroom community and so I
2:20:52 think this is SuperDuper important and I
2:20:54 I struggle because I don't want to throw
2:20:55 any of our neighboring cities under the
2:20:57 bus but this is really the repercussions
2:21:00 of being well rounded and so I'm very
2:21:03 proud of these numbers and I will tell
2:21:05 you that these numbers are lower than
2:21:07 unincorporated King County I looked at
2:21:09 unincorporated King County last summer
2:21:11 and so when people think that by not
2:21:14 incorporating they're gonna get
2:21:16 themselves a better tax bill
2:21:18 unfortunately that's not how it works
2:21:20 so and our residents and this numbers
2:21:23 prove that thanks sounds remember
2:21:27 winters time property taxes are roughly
2:21:30 13% of revenue and the general fund that
2:21:34 true roughly in were you looking at a
2:21:37 specific year just India recently it's I
2:21:53 I mean how you you don't have to do I
2:21:55 thought maybe you'd know if top your
2:21:57 head this isn't I just just to put this
2:21:59 in another I think in an important
2:22:01 perspective as well as what this rate
2:22:03 you know that this rate is what it is
2:22:05 but it's also only about 13 percent of
2:22:09 our revenue mm-hmm and in in I was just
2:22:12 looking back into them in the mid-year
2:22:14 report yeah you have it in the narrative
2:22:17 well we've we've collected what I've got
2:22:20 in the narrative here is not the
2:22:23 percentage of our total our overall
2:22:26 revenue so that's something that we can
2:22:31 add the the chart and you know it's more
2:22:34 just yeah the you have this in here you
2:22:39 compares with the other cities and
2:22:41 that's interesting and and we have a
2:22:45 significant amount of retail sales tax
2:22:48 for example not everybody has the same
2:22:50 mix so that that's that's it's
2:22:55 interesting to compare but we're not
2:22:57 really but II you know we have to do it
2:23:00 I think it only makes sense if you know
2:23:04 the entire makeup what's the president
2:23:07 yes I wanted to add to this too because
2:23:10 the one we're looking at this
2:23:12 information is that the city portion
2:23:14 includes the excess debt levy and so one
2:23:18 thing to note is that another community
2:23:20 may have have had voter approved excess
2:23:25 levies go forward they may have opted to
2:23:28 do a lid levy lift they may have opted
2:23:32 to do utilize all of their bank capacity
2:23:35 so so this this tells a story of
2:23:39 everything that that a community has has
2:23:42 determined to do and when we compare
2:23:44 those communities and so I just wanted
2:23:46 to point that out is that this is the
2:23:47 the total city portion of all the
2:23:50 different levies that and the the
2:23:55 impacts to their levy that those
2:23:57 communities have chosen do it thank you
2:24:03 for that clarification
2:24:05 so then we move on to page 123 I just
2:24:09 wanted to give a council the council a
2:24:11 breakdown of our sales tax it goes to a
2:24:15 variety of different places you can see
2:24:17 that the city of Issaquah does not
2:24:19 collect the the the total 10% general
2:24:23 sales tax so we collect a small portion
2:24:26 just like the property tax it goes to
2:24:29 other entities then we put in some
2:24:32 information - about our our total sales
2:24:35 tax as well as a history of sales tax by
2:24:38 some of those major categories there's a
2:24:42 quite a number of different categories
2:24:45 of sales tax that we monitor and receive
2:24:49 and it's all over the board but the
2:24:53 major portion is the retail sales tax
2:24:55 portion then we move on to information
2:24:59 background information about our
2:25:01 business and occupation tax you can see
2:25:03 there all of the different tax rates
2:25:05 again the tax rate was was changed in
2:25:09 2015 so you can see how we look at and
2:25:14 how we audit those bno tax returns and
2:25:18 those thresholds for whether or not
2:25:20 someone has to file a tax return
2:25:23 quarterly filing is at 25000 an annual
2:25:28 filing is at a hundred thousand and then
2:25:31 providing some historical information
2:25:33 and forecast
2:25:40 keep going moving on to page 125 at the
2:25:44 bottom is information utility taxes and
2:25:46 those are the taxes that we charge on
2:25:48 electricity natural gas so again that
2:25:51 forecast of all of the different
2:25:53 categories of utility tax and then on
2:25:55 the next page 126 shows a historical
2:25:59 comparison by the type of utility tax
2:26:03 that the city collects we also have
2:26:06 included information about building
2:26:08 permits engineering and plan check fees
2:26:10 at the bottom of page 126 and just want
2:26:13 to know this was a question last year
2:26:16 but we're certainly keeping it in
2:26:17 because there was a question about plan
2:26:20 check fees dipping and an engineering
2:26:22 fees increasing and this was primarily
2:26:26 due to some in 2014 and 16 some of large
2:26:30 multifamily projects in Highlands and
2:26:34 well in the valley floor to show you
2:26:37 that again like I stated this is a hard
2:26:40 one to predict and we do our best to
2:26:43 monitor what's in the pipeline and put
2:26:45 that into our forecast and budgets
2:26:51 shared revenues then is on page 127
2:26:55 shared revenues include our liquor
2:26:57 license our liquor profits and and
2:26:59 marijuana profits and just to show you
2:27:02 where where we have been and how we the
2:27:06 dollar amounts that we have been
2:27:08 collecting tell us remember hunt I
2:27:13 actually have a question about the
2:27:15 previous page the figure four with the
2:27:18 building permits engineering and plan
2:27:20 check you mentioned that it's hard to
2:27:23 predict these I also is it safe to say
2:27:27 that they're not tracking with each
2:27:28 other you you don't see the same trends
2:27:31 with you can't really predict what's
2:27:34 gonna happen with the plan check or with
2:27:37 building permits and they're just sort
2:27:39 of independently changing it looks like
2:27:47 yeah listen I just want a question is
2:27:50 there there they don't they're not
2:27:51 really they're not following a trend
2:27:54 with each other they just follow
2:27:55 different trends for each of those these
2:28:06 that's not I guess it's not really
2:28:08 question it's just I I would have
2:28:09 thought that they would have a
2:28:11 relationship with each other where
2:28:12 they're correlated or something but they
2:28:14 seem to not be they do it's a little
2:28:18 funky on this page I think you're seeing
2:28:21 the impact of the moratorium here so
2:28:23 they do sort of track until we hit that
2:28:26 that moment in time to some degree
2:28:29 there's also lag
2:28:30 so you'll typically you get the plan
2:28:35 check and then the building permit so
2:28:41 they do they they typically follow kind
2:28:44 of similar pattern but I think we've had
2:28:46 some weirdness with our moratorium
2:28:50 impact and and that's why 2017 was so
2:28:56 difficult for us we tried to be very
2:28:59 conservative in our estimate and
2:29:00 actually had more in the pipeline that
2:29:03 proceeded faster than we had expected so
2:29:08 that's really the strangeness I think
2:29:11 you begin to see play out in 2016 and
2:29:14 2017 I just like that there was a year
2:29:19 that we run in $50 in engineering of
2:29:22 inspections it just makes you wonder
2:29:27 what was that $50 any other questions
2:29:34 the homestretch
2:29:38 I think your mic is your mic not about
2:29:44 that on page 128 there's a this is the
2:29:48 some similar information the council
2:29:50 might have seen for information purposes
2:29:53 these are alternative revenue options
2:29:56 that may be considered we talked about
2:29:59 that earlier about a new source of
2:30:01 revenue was in one of the scenarios in
2:30:04 the financial model but it is hoped to
2:30:07 give the council a very brief background
2:30:09 about some of these alternative revenue
2:30:13 options there is certainly more
2:30:15 information certainly about any of these
2:30:17 revenue options and as we go forward
2:30:21 through the budget discussions certainly
2:30:23 would would bring forth more
2:30:26 comprehensive review of a source should
2:30:28 the council direct the administration to
2:30:30 do so all right questions all right
2:30:39 does administration have any closing
2:30:42 comments for us this evening does anyone
2:30:46 in council have any comments I'm
2:30:48 something of a winter's day
2:30:49 thank you toilet I think I'm gonna ask a
2:30:55 question of the administration that I'm
2:30:56 gonna ask a question of you the the
2:30:59 fiscal model summary the baseline sarios
2:31:02 a b c and d you've indicated tonight
2:31:07 that you will be using this information
2:31:13 some i mean and maybe going forward did
2:31:17 you just explain what what you were
2:31:19 talking about there I'd like to hear
2:31:21 that and then actually so I'm gonna let
2:31:23 Tola know what I'm gonna ask him as well
2:31:25 so Tola
2:31:26 it seems to me that that model and what
2:31:29 we've assumed in there are all big is is
2:31:33 there's a pretty big deal it's hold
2:31:36 documents a big deal Jen but that part's
2:31:38 a really big deal and and if some of us
2:31:43 I know you know Ryan
2:31:44 bill Vikki haven't seen it before at all
2:31:48 but it would be good not to go away
2:31:51 tonight without getting at least some
2:31:53 type of reaction to what was proposed
2:31:58 here or or or what it's not really a
2:32:00 proposal but what's in this model and
2:32:02 what it might be from everybody I'd like
2:32:03 to get because we spent a lot of time on
2:32:05 this and the ad hoc committee I just
2:32:07 seeing it for the first time I'm just
2:32:09 kind of wondering if they have any
2:32:11 reaction or care the concerns or
2:32:13 comments and and and I thought before we
2:32:16 left tonight to get that would be good
2:32:18 but I'd also like to hear a little bit
2:32:19 more how the administration was it wants
2:32:21 to use this information so there you go
2:32:29 okay so one of the things that so what I
2:32:35 what I would like to do to honor that is
2:32:39 I would like to offer council members an
2:32:43 opportunity to summarize how this
2:32:46 information they think will what
2:32:51 questions it may address that we want to
2:32:54 bring up in the budget process but I
2:32:56 also want to make a mechanism where
2:32:59 people can alternately if they have
2:33:03 feedback that they want to provide in
2:33:05 writing this week to the administration
2:33:07 they could do that and the
2:33:08 administration could come back to us
2:33:10 because I know some of us are more
2:33:11 comfortable speaking extemporaneously
2:33:13 and some people are not so I want to I
2:33:16 want to provide both of those mechanisms
2:33:17 and make sure people don't feel like
2:33:19 they would have to do it tonight they
2:33:21 could also do it in if they wanted to
2:33:23 after after sleeping on it and thinking
2:33:26 about it a little further I like the
2:33:30 idea of us having an opportunity to
2:33:33 provide that feedback and I've sort of
2:33:34 already done that myself personally
2:33:43 so I think from administration's
2:33:45 standpoint we were just eager to share
2:33:48 this information so you have a better
2:33:50 sense of the overall financial health of
2:33:52 the organization and you asked you know
2:33:56 how might we use this information going
2:33:59 forward and I think we have a we have a
2:34:02 couple places at least coming up soon
2:34:05 we're having this background will help
2:34:08 us in facing some decisions so one is
2:34:12 with the budget amendment that is coming
2:34:14 up majority of the budget amendments are
2:34:20 items that have already been approved by
2:34:23 council and you've directed us to
2:34:25 incorporate those but when we bring it
2:34:28 back to you as a package it looks like a
2:34:30 big number so this will help you put it
2:34:33 into context to some degree and we are
2:34:37 in the midst of developing the 19 budget
2:34:41 I think having this background
2:34:43 information will allow you to maybe get
2:34:47 a visual on how what we will propose for
2:34:53 2019 compares to what's in the forecast
2:34:55 let's take an example of that might be
2:34:58 the debt service level we might propose
2:35:03 having greater debt expenditure or we
2:35:06 might propose adding more staffing
2:35:09 resources than what was depicted here
2:35:12 and you might be able to kind of scale
2:35:14 up and understand what the longer-term
2:35:18 impact of that is I think on the
2:35:23 scenarios that we gave you we are hoping
2:35:27 to get some reaction whether it's
2:35:30 tonight or some point in the near future
2:35:32 so that we can bring forward a tangible
2:35:36 proposal a direct proposal for you on
2:35:38 how to meet some of the community needs
2:35:41 that you've expressed whether that's
2:35:44 transportation or something else as
2:35:47 council president Mart's stated there is
2:35:53 standing directive to the ad hoc Finance
2:35:56 Committee to come back to the whole
2:35:58 council with the recommendation on how
2:36:01 to fund the unfunded transportation
2:36:05 projects and so we're trying to be
2:36:08 responsive to that as well deputy
2:36:15 council president impetus first of all
2:36:19 Jan and everyone who worked on this
2:36:23 thank you for for all the hard work and
2:36:27 everything that has gone into this I
2:36:29 would say I just wanted to give a little
2:36:32 bit of initial feedback and then if I
2:36:34 have some other thoughts all follow up
2:36:36 via email but having the the modeling
2:36:40 and the ending fund balance baseline
2:36:43 with the different scenarios especially
2:36:45 as we're talking about transportation is
2:36:48 really helpful to me being able to look
2:36:51 at that and think about the different
2:36:52 scenarios and and try to I think it just
2:36:56 helps my brain anyway to think about
2:36:58 those different scenarios especially
2:37:00 before something comes forward I did
2:37:03 have the question about that that we
2:37:06 went straight to recall it traffic
2:37:08 instead of transportation here but that
2:37:10 we went straight to that so better
2:37:12 understanding that was good we asked a
2:37:16 few questions around those assumptions I
2:37:19 always feel like when you're working
2:37:21 with models and assumptions it's really
2:37:24 good to get a lot of pushback on the
2:37:27 assumptions I think it gives you a
2:37:29 better product in the end so I was glad
2:37:31 that we had a conversation around that
2:37:33 so I just wanted to say overall having
2:37:36 having it modeled this way and and being
2:37:40 able to look at that is helpful for me
2:37:45 other comments
2:37:51 council member hunt thank you also for
2:37:56 all of the work that went went into this
2:37:58 so this is the first time that I've been
2:38:01 looking at the budget and we're looking
2:38:04 at the finances in such detail and I
2:38:06 think for me the the thing that I want
2:38:09 to look at in parallel with the model is
2:38:12 what's in our CIP because I think that
2:38:14 that is the other piece to this and look
2:38:18 at here it is trying to tackle traffic
2:38:22 or transportation but as has been
2:38:25 mentioned by my fellow councilmembers
2:38:27 there are other things in the CIP too
2:38:29 and I think that that really affects how
2:38:33 I would think of the scenarios and then
2:38:36 I think that having the having the
2:38:39 scenarios where you just change one
2:38:41 variable it makes a lot of sense for
2:38:43 looking at how in the big picture how
2:38:47 changing one variable does change the
2:38:49 trend over time it might be as we have
2:38:54 more conversations it might be helpful
2:38:56 to have some more realistic detailed
2:39:00 versions of scenarios where if we if we
2:39:03 come sort of start narrowing down our
2:39:06 options and then think well if we did
2:39:08 this then we would probably start tuning
2:39:10 down this other lever at this point that
2:39:14 would also be helpful so I will be
2:39:17 looking at looking in more detail to try
2:39:20 to match up my understanding of this
2:39:23 model with the CIP councilmember Ramos
2:39:30 yeah this is great to start looking at
2:39:34 the budget in this way because one of
2:39:35 the concerns I've had as we've done
2:39:37 things in the past is we look at the big
2:39:39 budget and then we keep making these
2:39:41 amendments through the year which keep
2:39:42 adding a piece of the time of pieces
2:39:45 time as you just mentioned all of a
2:39:46 sudden we're gonna get an amendment
2:39:47 that's gonna come here and look like how
2:39:48 the heck we did we just approve all that
2:39:50 because it totals up quickly and it's
2:39:53 not and when we do that we're never
2:39:54 looking at the big piece we just keep
2:39:56 looking at these individual pieces which
2:39:58 which puts our perspective nothing in a
2:40:01 good way so this is a start
2:40:04 trying to look at that hole that big
2:40:06 picture and say compare back to the CIP
2:40:09 that's all great too but we have not
2:40:11 prioritized that list in in the totally
2:40:16 you know so as we look at that it's like
2:40:18 what would we do in in what order and
2:40:20 that would also make a difference to to
2:40:22 how we fund things in the long run as
2:40:24 well so the priorities do make a
2:40:26 difference to to that list as well and
2:40:29 and another thing that I guess because
2:40:30 I've heard it previously as we need you
2:40:33 know a transportation benefit district
2:40:35 to fund these things and this is shown
2:40:37 that there are some ways without adding
2:40:39 more money because I think one of our
2:40:40 most important duties is to take the
2:40:43 money we have now and spend it very
2:40:45 wisely and in places where we prioritize
2:40:47 it I think it's most important and
2:40:49 before we ask for additional funding so
2:40:52 that's that's showing that that gives us
2:40:54 more option than what I've heard
2:40:55 previously from s administrations so
2:40:59 that's a real good way to start looking
2:41:01 at those those things so to me
2:41:02 prioritizing what can you get done with
2:41:05 the resources you have protecting them
2:41:07 out over time before you start looking
2:41:09 at more and really the way we just do
2:41:15 our budgeting in a way that when we keep
2:41:17 adding pieces we have to somehow keep
2:41:19 keep the whole picture in mind versus a
2:41:21 little piece of the time a little piece
2:41:22 of the time and all of a sudden you
2:41:24 spent a few extra million dollars that
2:41:26 you weren't expecting this bin and that
2:41:27 that lets our budget way out of whack
2:41:30 when we when we're looking at the big
2:41:31 picture we're arguing sometimes down to
2:41:33 ten thousand dollars or something like
2:41:34 that and Ellison's something much bigger
2:41:36 comes buying it slides right in so those
2:41:39 are things I hope that we continue to
2:41:40 improve how we look at this budget
2:41:42 overall and then fiscal practices will
2:41:45 just keep getting better thank you
2:41:49 so so I'll circle back this is this is
2:41:54 incredibly valuable information and
2:41:55 thank you very much it's super important
2:41:58 that that people understand this
2:41:59 information and that's why you know I
2:42:02 apologize if I if I pick some
2:42:04 engineering nits and some individual
2:42:05 slides I just want to make sure the
2:42:07 public understand it's because because I
2:42:08 think generally it tells a really good
2:42:10 story about our fiscal stewardship it
2:42:15 does this issue of
2:42:17 we track compared to inflation is a
2:42:19 thing I'm gonna really want to
2:42:21 understand going forward I have some
2:42:23 concerns I'm again I'm hoping that when
2:42:26 we look at it on a long timeline and
2:42:29 gonna put it in present dollars and all
2:42:31 that kind of stuff
2:42:31 that my concerns will will not you know
2:42:35 will go away you know I want to
2:42:38 reiterate I think the challenge coming
2:42:40 out of tonight is to talk about this
2:42:44 you know there's transportation and then
2:42:46 there's the other right and the a you
2:42:48 know I wrote down some stuff open space
2:42:50 we've had conversations recently about
2:42:52 spending money on open space we've got
2:42:55 you know recreational facilities every
2:42:58 so often we get letters from people that
2:42:59 want us to build a new pool and we're
2:43:01 not gonna do that any time soon but
2:43:03 that's in the mix out there city
2:43:06 facilities and where the city what the
2:43:08 city looks like 20 years from now for
2:43:10 infrastructure human services things
2:43:13 that we want to do services to provide
2:43:15 for the community workforce housing is
2:43:17 something that at times cost money
2:43:19 you know Senior Center do we want to
2:43:21 invest money and in running a Senior
2:43:23 Center ourselves that's a that's a
2:43:25 smaller one but a one that's coming up
2:43:27 in the near term and we have to factor
2:43:29 all these things in when we look at that
2:43:32 coming up with a curve that's that's
2:43:34 beautiful and just touches a limit that
2:43:37 we set for ourselves we want to make
2:43:38 sure that those other factors although
2:43:41 no one of them probably you know raises
2:43:44 people's blood pressure as much in the
2:43:46 community as traffic put together
2:43:47 they're also additional important
2:43:50 factors for making our city run well so
2:43:52 I'm not sure exactly how we broaden the
2:43:54 conversation to include those topics but
2:43:57 we'll figure it out and we'll do it
2:44:00 any other comments and I do want it I
2:44:03 don't know if we have anybody from the
2:44:04 public here tonight but if we do we
2:44:05 could do we have anybody yeah all right
2:44:08 we don't have to worry about public
2:44:09 comment all did you yeah thank you
2:44:14 regarding the the scenarios I'm gonna
2:44:18 repeat myself somewhat but it is so I've
2:44:21 had the opportunity to sleep on it for
2:44:23 many moons I'm not just hearing it for
2:44:25 the first time we heard it in the
2:44:26 ad hoc committee and seeing it again
2:44:29 tonight there I think Vicki touched upon
2:44:34 something I think I saw some non income
2:44:36 heads we see we think we think we think
2:44:39 this strategy we pick a strategy to go
2:44:42 forward with we will perhaps refine some
2:44:45 of the estimates that makes sense to me
2:44:48 but at at this level I think I think
2:44:51 what we're looking for some type of
2:44:52 policy direction with this granularity
2:44:54 in this type and level of data that we
2:44:57 have right now so so that I think that's
2:45:00 that will happen well we'll get more
2:45:03 rule refined things once we focus in on
2:45:07 a scenario that we want to try to
2:45:08 execute on I'm still in favor of I do
2:45:12 like the idea of using that capacity
2:45:16 that we have and saying we're going to
2:45:19 fund this out of our existing revenues
2:45:21 and we're gonna we're going to figure
2:45:22 out how to make this work and so that
2:45:24 and that so that so that cenario see
2:45:28 that we've already discussed I just want
2:45:31 to reiterate I think that that is I'd
2:45:33 like to see us go on a path and try to
2:45:36 do that and and I think what I heard
2:45:39 that does say there's got to be some
2:45:43 revenue we have to somehow fund a
2:45:47 greater debt obligation and the TBD
2:45:49 still maybe one of the tools for doing
2:45:51 that but not anytime soon
2:45:53 if we follow scenario C any other
2:46:00 comments o deputy council president
2:46:04 batiste
2:46:05 so that this comment may be a little bit
2:46:08 down in the weeds but I'll just go ahead
2:46:10 and talk about it the as we talk about
2:46:15 whether this is for transportation or or
2:46:18 it's going to include other things as
2:46:20 has been talked a little bit about when
2:46:23 we when we look at scenario B and within
2:46:28 the modeling we bring it all the way
2:46:30 down to the 15% reserve line that what
2:46:36 what sticks out to me is
2:46:38 if we're if we're wrapping everything
2:46:40 around transportation and we go all the
2:46:42 way down to that reserve line and then
2:46:45 what about other things that might come
2:46:47 up so just within the modeling it might
2:46:50 there might be the ability to play with
2:46:52 the numbers a little bit so it's not to
2:46:54 being all the way down and scenario B to
2:46:56 the 15 percent reserve line so just a
2:46:59 thought so all for myself a third
2:47:08 comment I think that I want to come back
2:47:16 to this idea that if we know what we
2:47:19 need to do I think that one of the
2:47:22 things we should consider as a council
2:47:24 is whether we go to the public sooner
2:47:28 rather than later I think that on the
2:47:31 last bond I don't think the public
2:47:35 necessarily saw the direct coupling of
2:47:39 what we wanted to do to improve to
2:47:42 improving transportation in and through
2:47:44 the city and I think that if we came up
2:47:47 with a killer package of things that
2:47:51 everybody looked at and said oh yeah
2:47:54 that's gonna make traffic better
2:47:55 tomorrow right
2:47:56 like the roundabout in front of in front
2:48:00 of target makes better banks traffic
2:48:02 better right now right it's better safer
2:48:05 through that area now than it was before
2:48:08 that roundabout was there there's
2:48:10 there's projects like that so I I just
2:48:13 want to I don't want to leave it unsaid
2:48:16 that there's an option going forward
2:48:17 that would be putting together like I
2:48:19 said this killer package of
2:48:20 transportation benefits and putting in
2:48:22 front of the public that I think we you
2:48:27 know we did well on a package that I as
2:48:30 I said had some confusion had an active
2:48:32 no campaign if we had something that the
2:48:34 public thought Janet that's perfect
2:48:36 that's what we need
2:48:38 I think we'd find the other 5% so I
2:48:40 think it needs to stay in the mix in
2:48:42 consideration I also think that before
2:48:44 we did the parks bond and this was what
2:48:48 five years ago something like that we
2:48:51 did some polling to find out priorities
2:48:53 around bonding specifically right and so
2:48:56 when we did the bond and we said five
2:48:59 million of it was going to be for
2:49:00 renovating the pool and five million of
2:49:03 it was going to be for confluence we had
2:49:05 some confidence that there was support
2:49:07 for that in the community and it's one
2:49:08 of the reasons why we just went to the
2:49:09 city we didn't try to create a benefit
2:49:11 district that would include the larger
2:49:14 area because those voters told us to go
2:49:16 pound sand and so I wonder if there's an
2:49:19 opportunity as we move forward to get a
2:49:22 better feel as to the community's
2:49:24 appetite for what they would want to see
2:49:26 potentially bonded out to the public
2:49:29 before deciding what would go into that
2:49:32 quote-unquote killer package so again
2:49:38 other additional comments thoughts going
2:49:43 I think twice I guess we don't have to
2:49:46 do it like public comment we don't have
2:49:47 to ask three times with that we are
2:49:49 adjourned thank you very much everyone

Attendance

Council / Members (7)
Mariah Bettise
Stacy Goodman (Arrived at 6:25 PM)
Victoria Hunt
Tola Marts (Mayor Pro Tem)
Bill Ramos
Chris Reh
Paul Winterstein